(From our special correspondent in Warsaw)
The main and long-standing political rivals, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the opposition Civic Platform (PO) of Donald Tusk and their small partners, believed until the last moment that the next four-year period of government in the country would be theirs.
Since they need at least 43 percent of the votes cast to govern independently, both camps are well aware that they will not be without coalition allies when creating a parliamentary majority.
According to the latest survey by the IBRiS agency, published on Friday afternoon, PiS leads with 33.9 percent, followed by PO with 27 percent and its potential allies the Third Way and the Left with 11 percent, respectively. 9.7 percent. Kaczynski’s potential coalition ally, the far-right Confederation, won 8.2 percent. 58.7 percent declared their participation in the elections, and another six percent of voters said they were likely to go to the polls.
Polish parliamentary elections 2023: When and who is leading in the polls
The result of the Kantar survey, which was published by TVN24 on Friday, was quite surprising. 51 percent of respondents prefer a joint government of PO, the Third Way of the Left, and 34 percent are in favor of a government formed by the Law and Justice party. Six percent are not interested in the government of either group and would like another, but could not specify which one, and nine percent could not comment.
Polish women matter more than ever this year. A report published earlier this month by the Stefan Batory Foundation, a Warsaw think tank, said that only 52 percent of Polish women in the 18-45 age group are willing to go to the polls, compared to 58 percent of men.
During the campaign, both blocs and their leaders made it clear that they believed in triumph at the ballot box and that they were well prepared to lead the country through difficult times.
At the same time as the elections, a referendum called by PiS will also take place with four questions: on the privatization of state-owned enterprises, raising the retirement age, limiting migration and destroying the metal barrier on the border with Belarus.
Given that the full wording of these questions is rather tendentious and would probably help PiS win the elections, it is unlikely that opposition voters would participate in them.
Nevertheless, on Friday afternoon, former Polish president Lech Walesa, former president and founder of the legendary trade union movement Solidarita, presented an extremely dark post-election scenario in Poland.
He claims that Kaczyňský’s PiS will not want to hand over power even in the event of an electoral defeat, for which he is said to be preparing. In case that happens, he called on all democratic forces in the country to come to the Polish capital and help them leave. At the same time, he declared that he would take the lead in this fight.
Political parties that have a chance to get into the Sejm
Právo a spravedlnost (Law and Justice)
A Polish populist right-wing party founded in 2001 by the brothers Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczyński. Since 2015, when it won the elections, Law and Justice has dominated Polish politics. Due to some of its steps, such as the reform of the judiciary, suppression of media freedom, but also hateful rhetoric towards minorities, the tightening of the abortion law, the party faces not only domestic but also international criticism. The party practices a generous social policy, which ensures the favor of voters from the countryside and smaller towns.
Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska)
A center-right party that was founded in 2001. It won in 2007 and repeated its success in the following elections. It ruled until 2015, when it was replaced by Law and Justice. It is a liberal party supporting the European Union, gay marriage or easing anti-abortion legislation. She also recently announced that she wants to promote the separation of church and state.
Konfederace (Confederation)
A far-right anti-system coalition of right-wing parties that presents itself as an alternative to established political groups, which was formed in 2018. Its main faces are Krzystof Bosak and Slawomir Metzen. It is critical of the EU and migration, some of its members hold anti-Semitic views.
New Left (Nowa Lewica)
The New Left is a Polish left-wing party that was founded in 2021. Its main program is human rights, as well as the secularization of Poland. It therefore promotes, for example, the separation of church and state. But it also deals with issues that concern the LGBT community, climate change, or women’s rights.
The Third Way (Trzecia Droga)
The Third Way coalition is the result of the joining forces of Szymon Holowni’s Poland 2050 party and the Polish People’s Party. Both parties signed the cooperation agreement in April this year. The coalition goes to the elections with the slogan “Enough of the quarrels, forward”. The third way portrays itself as a counterweight to the PiS party and the Confederacy coalition.
2023-10-14 11:07:37
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