Author: PAP/AT
Added: 31-08-2023 10:05 | Update: 31-08-2023 10:53
GDP in the second quarter of 2023 fell by 0.6 percent. year-on-year compared with a decrease of 0.3 percent. year on year in the first quarter of 2023, according to the Central Statistical Office.
GDP in the second quarter of 2023 fell by 0.6 percent. y/y Investments increased by 7.9 percent. yoy, private consumption fell by 2.7 percent and domestic demand fell by 4.1 percent. y/y – according to data from the Central Statistical Office.
The Polish economy reached the bottom of the slowdown in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, consumer spending will start to grow again as inflation falls, predicts Jakub Rybacki from the Polish Economic Institute.
Poland’s GDP in the second quarter of 2023 fell by 0.6 percent. y/y
Poland’s Gross Domestic Product in Q2 fell by 0.6 percent. compared to a 0.3 percent decline. y/y in Q1 2023. According to the flash estimate, GDP in Q2 fell by 0.5 percent. – informed the Central Statistical Office (GUS)
According to the data of the Central Statistical Office, investments in the second quarter increased by 7.9 percent. yoy, private consumption fell by 2.7 percent, while domestic demand fell by 4.1 percent. y/y
The market expected an increase in investments and a decline in private consumption and domestic demand
The consensus shows that the market expected an investment growth of 4.3%. yoy, a decline in private consumption by 2.9 percent. yoy and a decline in domestic demand by 3.1 percent. y/y
On a quarterly basis, GDP fell by 2.2%. (SA) versus -3.7 percent. in flash respect.
Below are the components of GDP for Q2 and Q1 2023:
2023 Q1 Q2 Total consumption -1.6 -1.5 Consumption – in the household sector -2.0 -2.7 – public -0.5 2.6 Gross accumulation -18.4 -14.3 including: Gross fixed capital formation 5.5 7.9 Exports 3.2 -2.7 Imports -4.6 -8.1 Domestic demand -5.2 -4.1 Gross domestic product -0.3 -0 .6 including: Gross value added 0.7 0.5
The scale of the impact of individual components on GDP in Q2 2023
The scale of the impact of individual components on GDP in the second quarter of 2023, published by the Central Statistical Office.
The scale of the impact of individual categories on real GDP growth (in percentage points)
seasonally unadjusted GDP; constant average annual prices of the previous year.
2023 Q1 Q2 Gross domestic product -0.3 -0.6 Domestic demand -4.6 -3.7 Total consumption -1.1 -1.1 Consumption in the household sector -1.0 -1, 5 Public consumption -0.1 0.4 Accumulation -3.5 -2.6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.6 1.2 Increase in tangible current assets -4.1 -3.8 Foreign trade balance 4.3 3 .1 Gross value added 0.5 0.4
The Polish economy reached the bottom of the slowdown in the second quarter
– The Polish economy reached the bottom of the slowdown in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, consumer spending will start to grow again as inflation falls. We will continue to observe good investment results. In total, the economy will grow by about 0.6% in the whole year. – forecasts the head of the macroeconomics team of the Polish Economic Institute, Jakub Rybacki.
– Starting from the third quarter, we should see a return to growth – we expect a gradual rebound in consumer spending on durable goods and services. The Polish economy will also continue to be supported by a positive net export balance, added the economist. In his opinion, lower investments will remain a drawback – the increase in corporate expenditure will slow down after a successful first half of the year.
In his opinion, lower investments will remain a drawback – the growth of enterprises’ expenditures will slow down after a successful first half of the year.
– In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate will exceed 1%. y/y Comments from all international institutions exclude the possibility of a continuation of the slowdown. Compared to the current results, the prospects of other European Union countries will also be much better. Therefore, throughout 2023, GDP growth will amount to approx. 0.6 percent. – noted the representative of PIE.
There is a growing risk that GDP may record a third straight quarter of decline
Rafał Benecki and Adam Antoniak from ING Bank Śląski pointed out in Thursday’s commentary that domestic demand fell by 4.1 percent. yoy, after a decline of 5.2 percent. y/y a quarter earlier, and the improvement in the foreign trade balance had a positive contribution to the annual change in GDP by 3.1 percentage points. percent (4.3 percentage points in Q1 2023). In their opinion, the weakness of domestic demand was primarily a consequence of the deepening decline in household consumption, which in the second quarter of this year was decreased by 2.7 percent. yoy, after a decrease of 2.0 percent. yoy in the first quarter of this year.
“Despite some improvement, real household income remains under pressure, and the improvement in consumer sentiment has not yet translated into bolder consumer purchasing decisions. Investments, which increased by 7.9% y/y last quarter, are still a positive surprise, after an increase of 5.5 percent y/y in Q1 2023,” economists indicated. They admitted that the situation here, however, “probably varies quite a bit depending on the type and scale of the enterprise”.
As they reported, investments by large companies and public investments are increasing, while in the SME sector the situation “seems to look much worse”.
“So far, we assumed that the rebound in the economic situation in the second half of 2023 would be anemic, and we will see a clearer improvement only in the fourth quarter of 2023. The July data from the real economy disappointed on the negative side, and the forecasts for the August data are also not optimistic. In particular, the weakness of consumption and export prospects deteriorated (poor results of the German industry, decrease in new foreign orders) – informed the economists of ING Bank Śląski.
In their opinion, there is a growing risk that in the third quarter of this year GDP growth in annual terms will not significantly differ from zero, and may even record a third quarter of decline in a row. “In this context, we are lowering the economic growth forecast for 2023 from 1 percent to 0.4 percent.” – they gave.
They pointed out that the rebound in the economic situation at the turn of 2023/24 should be supported by the recovery of private consumption in the context of improving real disposable income of households and better consumer sentiment. At the same time, as they pointed out, consumers continue to be cautious in spending, and the improvement in consumption will be delayed in relation to the improvement in real purchasing power.
“In 2024, we expect a GDP growth of around 2.5 percent with significantly weaker investment results than this year (the beginning of the new EU financial perspective)” – emphasized the economists. They added that the poor economic situation and inflation approaching single-digit levels will be arguments for the MPC to start a cycle of interest rate cuts after the holidays.
“The GDP result in Q2 2023 turned out to be worse than predicted in the July NBP projection (-0.6% y/y vs -0.1% y/y), and the outlook for H2 2023 is also increasingly risky We expect the MPC to cut interest rates by 25 bp in September.” – summed up the economists of ING Bank Śląski.
Household consumption is responsible for the deepening of the decline in GDP
According to Monika Kurek from Bank Pocztowy, GUS data on GDP do not differ significantly from expectations.
– The full structure of GDP in the second quarter of this year published today by the Central Statistical Office. does not differ significantly from expectations. Household consumption was the main reason for the deepening of the GDP decline in this period, while investments continued to grow relatively strongly. In addition, companies continued to dispose of inventories in the second quarter, which resulted in their negative contribution to GDP, but slightly lower than in the first quarter, she assessed.
As she explained, exports of goods and services fell, but at the same time imports fell several times more, which in total resulted in a positive contribution of net exports to GDP
– We are currently after two months of the third quarter in the economy and so far the picture looks so-so. July brought still weak readings of industrial production, construction and assembly production and retail sales. In August, the data should turn out to be better, but the minuses will still dominate the front, she noted.
According to the economist, GDP may be negative again in the third quarter.
– In the entire third quarter, GDP may turn out to be negative again, although rather slightly negative, because we assume that we had a trough in the second quarter. What about the MPC? The GDP path is implemented differently than assumed by the NBP forecasts, i.e. lower. Therefore, in September, the Council may decide that despite still two-digit inflation, it will not delay in August and start cutting interest rates. I expect a 25 bp cut in September. – assessed Monika Kurek.
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2023-09-01 16:11:13
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