/ world today news/ Forecasts show that Poland will face a serious population decline. Attracting migrants can help. Ukraine, in this context, becomes a “donor” of human resources for Poland, which implies the destruction of Ukrainian statehood. But this is also a challenge for Russia.
The short-term perspective dictates to Warsaw the need to support the regime in Kyiv. Thanks to this, the ruling Polish coalition led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS) solves its immediate tasks: victory in the autumn elections to the Polish Sejm, “cutting coupons” from the activity as a transit center for transporting American military aid to the regime in Kiev, gaining political capital in the European Union.
But in the medium and long term, Warsaw’s interests include the destruction of Ukrainian statehood as such. This task is set before Poland primarily by Polish demography.
A recent forecast report by Eurostat says that by 2100 Poland’s population will decrease by more than 8.1 million people.
„In this way, our country will account for almost 30% of all population losses in the European Union “, writes the Polish portal Gazeta. “Only Italy will become more depopulated than us by the end of the 21st century.” Only migration will save the situation: without it, Poland’s population would have decreased by more than 13 million people.
These forecasts are decisive for the functioning of the state, including from the point of view of the labor market, the newspaper notes. The problems of the latter, says Pawel Kubicki, an expert at the Warsaw School of Economics, will be more and more “mitigated” by migrants.
„Already about 6.5% of our workforce consists of foreigners,” notes Kubicki. “In the coming years, we will at least double or even triple that percentage.” That’s why according to him “the only option for PiS is exactly what it is doing – talking loudly about social policy and quietly opening the door to migration”.
Where the rulers will take the migrants, of course.
The disintegration of Ukraine as a state, which surfaced in 2014 and accelerated after the start of a special military operation, became an opportunity for Poland to acquire labor “for nothing.” And we’re not just talking about seasonal guest workers working in Poland on a rotational basis.
According to a study by the international employment agency Gremi Personal, already 38% of Ukrainians who left to work in the neighboring country will not return. For the ruling Polish party, this means that in 2023-2025 there will be an opportunity to “soften” negative demographic trends at the expense of migrants from Ukraine. But then this source will begin to dry up. Also, the Ukrainians may start to return anyway.
The destruction of Ukrainian statehood in this situation becomes a profitable enterprise for Poland with all the side effects.
Ukraine is already rapidly losing its population. According to the report of the United Nations Population Fund, cited by the Ukrainian publication Strana, the population of Ukraine has now decreased to 36.7 million people, although 20 years ago it was just over 48 million. Warsaw needs, if not to “press”, then at least not to hinder this trend.
Apart from the demographic advantages, there are also political benefits for Poland.
In the case of the liquidation of Ukrainian statehood, the need to solve the difficult questions of applying a foreign language, culture and history, which would become an urgent necessity in the course of building the Polish-Ukrainian union, disappears.
There is no Ukrainian statehood – there is no need to give the Ukrainian language the status of a second state language in Poland, giving it undeserved preference. After all, scientific discoveries are not made in the Ukrainian language, and in international communication it does not go beyond the Ukrainian diaspora. Finally, you don’t need to worry about how to get Lviv back together with the rest of the Eastern cress.
The assimilation of former Ukrainian citizens, their formation into new Poles exclusively using the Polish language, Polish cultural codes and the Polish historical vision, accordingly became a top priority for Warsaw.
Including in removing the “germs” of aggressive Ukrainian nationalism, which will infect Poland. It is true that a situation may arise when some migrants from the neighboring country become a “pro-Russian” social community, choosing the Russian language and culture as the basis of their self-identification.
But after all, Poland is not doomed forever to “do business” with political Russophobia, and such a “pro-Russian” community will help Warsaw revive relations with Russia in the future and build a dialogue.
Judging by some indicators, Poland is already thinking about keeping Ukrainians in its country. This becomes a challenge for Moscow as well.
According to some experts, Russia should also build a more effective mechanism for attracting Ukrainian citizens who want to settle in our country. Really, often, overcoming the road “across half of Europe”they face insurmountable problems in adapting to a new place.
The task cannot be called original. In the past, Poland and Russia have already engaged in “poaching” of each other’s population. Let’s see how it goes this time.
Translation: EU
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