Inflation may take off early next year
I am glad that there is no sharp jump in inflation, but it is too early to beat the inflation retreat. Inflation usually works over a certain time horizon, at least a year. I think that higher inflation will also be next year, but next year, I believe it, will start to be in a downward trend – the prime minister said during the Friday press conference.
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Economists have no doubts – this is not the end of problems for our portfolios, and the beginning of next year will mean even greater increases for us. It is also an open question what the government will do in this situation.
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“The prime minister announced that the anti-inflation shields will be extended until the end of the year. Taking into account the mechanics and principles of creating the NBP’s inflation projection, in November it will show a jump in inflation in Q1 to the range of 20-25%.“- mBank analysts forecast.
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They believe the shields will last longer. According to the bank’s experts, actual inflation however, it will be close to 20 percent in this particular quarter. due to increases in electricity, heat and gas prices.
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What will the MPC do in this matter?
At the beginning of 2023, PKO BP specialists also pay attention. They assume that inflation has now entered a “plateau” phase.
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“We estimate that it will oscillate around 15% y / y until September, and by the end of the year it will slightly decrease to around 13.5% y / y. The level of inflation at the beginning of next year will depend on the moment when the Anti-Inflation Shields expire and the scale of energy price increases. . The July data support the scenario of a quick end to the NBP rate hikes cycle (maximum one hike by 50 bp in September) “- reads the bank’s comment.
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