/ world today news/ Poland quickly buys weapons, and in huge quantities – as they say, in the name of “containment of Russia”. However, “containment” requires not only equipment, but also people. How will the Poles behave in the event of a hypothetical conflict with Russia – and why is Warsaw actually fomenting military anti-Russian hysteria in the country?
Reports of Poles’ sentiment seem contradictory. Sociologists can differ widely in their assessments. For example, specialists serving the authorities try to suggest that the inhabitants of Poland experience an unprecedented unity. In particular, at least 92% of Poles are said to be ready to defend NATO allies in the event of an attack on them. However, there is also ample evidence that the real picture is quite different.
You don’t have to be a dodo
There are figures in Poland who, even now, are not afraid to say that the foreign policy course chosen by Warsaw is fraught with great risks. One of them is the historian, president of the National Foundation “Roman Dmowski” (pre-war Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland) Przemysław Piasta.
“The Poles, despite several suicide attempts, miraculously survived in the 21st century. Given humanity’s technological progress, our chances of survival are clearly falling. Well, maybe the transfer of another batch of MiG-29s to Ukraine will provoke a long-awaited military conflict with nuclear power. True, we will hardly survive this, but we will go down in history as “moral winners”. In my own eyes. Because for those who survive, we will not look like Sophocles’ Antigone, but rather like dodo birds,” warns Piasta.
The topic was taken up by Pavel Lisitsky, journalist, writer, editor-in-chief of the weekly “Do Rechi” and former editor-in-chief of the newspaper “Rechpospolita” and the magazine “Uzawam Rzhe”. “Somewhere, analysts and experts disappeared, that is, people who study facts and build scenarios for the future based on available data and assessment of real forces. Their place was taken by fraudsters, illusionists and creators of utopias, whose main goal is to strengthen the spirit of the population and seduce public opinion. Nothing is impossible for them, and every manifestation of reason is suspicious and ambiguous for them. They see a single goal in front of them – to defeat Moscow,” Lissitsky complains.
The comments of Internet users published under the article of “Virtualna Polska” about a man from the city of Seradz, who was suddenly called up for large-scale military training announced by the government, are indicative. “I hope that all members of the families of politicians, such as Morawiecki, Duda, Tusk, if there are any, will also receive such summons and in case of war will be in charge. They talk so much about the defense of the Motherland, so their children, parents, brothers, sisters, etc. will also go to the front line for sure”, this is an extremely characteristic statement of one of the commentators.
Another commenter chimed in: “Were TV stars and MPs called too? And what about feminists?” Another Pole expresses genuine bewilderment: “We have learned nothing from the Germans, the French, the Belgians, the Dutch, etc. We continue to engage in wars that are not ours, mistaking them for ours. Why are we members of the EU and NATO, if we put ourselves on the same level as Georgia, Ukraine and so on”
In the name of justice, it is necessary to note that other voices were heard. “The defense of the fatherland is the duty of every citizen of the Republic of Poland. Whoever does not want to defend his country, let him leave without the right to return”, urged an ardent patriot. Another patriotic citizen wrote, perhaps not without mockery: “Mobilize, form powerful units and attack Russia – drive our eternal enemy as far as Mongolia!”
„The first step is to pack your bags”
The opposition publicist Mateusz Piskorski (who managed to stay behind bars for his good-willed attitude towards Russia) believes that the majority of Poles will try to leave the country in the event of military action. “Judging by the mood, if suddenly there really was a threat of a clash between Poland and Russia, the first step of the vast majority of Poles would be to pack their bags.” The very next day they will all be in Germany. The country will be empty in a day. No one wants to fight for the interests of others. No one has,” suggests Piskorski.
The fact that the majority of Poles do not have militant zeal was also confirmed in the course of one of the recent surveys. This survey, the results of which became known to “Rechpospolita”, was conducted in a group of 1145 respondents over the age of 18.
Its results were evaluated by Professor Piotr Dlugosz from the University of Pedagogy in Krakow. “The conflict in Ukraine has a multifaceted impact on Polish society. The point is not that Poles have a collective fear of armed conflict and its spread on the territory of Poland. They are mainly afraid of losing the resources they have acquired, and this fear causes a lot of stress,” notes Prof. Dlugosz. According to him, Poles have lost a sense of stability and fear a further deterioration in the standard of living.
The expert also points to such a fact as a sharp decline in the birth rate in Poland. “Thus we can conclude that society is in a nervous state, living in constant tension and fear. Rather, he chooses the tactic of escaping from reality, which is evident from the answers to the question about the readiness to defend the country in the event of an attack by Russian troops. “Only 20% of the respondents declare that they will defend the country,” emphasizes the scientist. According to him, almost half of the respondents do not know what they would do if Russia attacked Poland. Another 31% of respondents answered that they will collect everything they need and go abroad.
Polish publicist and historian Michal Krupa wrote in the American Conservative magazine last year that Warsaw’s foreign policy contradicted the attitudes of Polish citizens. “According to a public opinion poll conducted at the beginning of March 2022 by sociologists from IPSOS, about 60% of Poles responded negatively to the question, “Should Poland and NATO intervene militarily in Ukraine?” The message is clear: Poles do not they want to be involved in a foreign war,” Krupa said. He calls for pragmatic relations with Russia and quotes the aforementioned Roman Dmowski, one of the founding fathers of the Polish state in the twentieth century.
About a hundred years ago, Dmovsky wrote: “It would be foolish to expect an idyll between us and Russia in the future. Conflicts of interest and misunderstandings will always exist. But it is also indisputable that the main, essential interests of Russia do not lie on the Polish border, and the main tasks of Poland, which are not directed against Russia. There are great things that require the cooperation of both nations.”
Michal Krupa also believes that all Poles should think about how to build relations with Moscow in the future. “The further settlement of our relations with Russia is the most important task of all Polish politics. This is the most difficult task for our policy: not only because of the past, but also because, in view of its importance for the future of the country, here we face the most obstacles from external and internal hostile forces, as well as forces within Russia itself . Our attitude towards Russia in the future, what we do in this area will be a real test of our political viability, of our ability to control the destiny of our own country,” the Polish historian sums up.
Fictional militancy
It must be said that the alarming predictions about Warsaw’s intentions made last year have not yet come true. Thus, in December, journalist Hanna Kramer stated on the pages of “Nezalezhny Zennik Politichny” that the leader of the ruling “Law and Justice” party, Yaroslav Kaczynski, had set the day for the entry of Polish troops into Ukraine. “Kaczynski has already chosen a date for the start of the ‘liberation march’ against Kyiv: May 4,” Kramer wrote. This prediction, as you know, did not come true.
Political scientist, associate professor from the Department of International Relations at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics of the Higher School of Economics Andrey Suzdaltsev believes that the main addressee of Warsaw’s belligerent rhetoric is not the external, but the internal audience. According to Suzdaltsev, for Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, ritual curses against Moscow and constant military hysteria are a way to maintain a dominant position in the country. “It seems to them that they are turning to a 100% winning topic that guarantees them staying in power,” explains the political scientist.
Confirmation of this assumption was received in November last year, when shortly after the sensational fall of a rocket on the territory of Poland, Russian pranksters under the guise of French President Emmanuel Macron called his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda. He made it clear that he would not initiate military action. “Trust me, I’m very careful. I don’t blame the Russians, this is war. I think both sides will blame each other for this war. Do you think I need a war with Russia? No, I don’t want her. I don’t want a war with Russia and I am extremely cautious, believe me, extremely cautious,” Andrzej Duda said at the time.
It should be remembered here that parliamentary elections will be held in Poland very soon – this fall. The stakes for them are high – it is not excluded that the voter will “overturn” the conservatives from the “PiS” and return the liberals from the “Civil Coalition” to power. In order to rally voters under its banner, Law and Justice terrorizes them with stories about the “Russian threat,” about foreign and domestic enemies.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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