Poland: Sending fighter jets to Ukraine “not easy”

Poland has been one of Ukraine’s most outspoken supporters since the war with Russia began.

Last month, it was one of several countries to pledge more tanks, ammunition and equipment to the front line.

President Duda’s comments come despite him and Zelensky speaking this week, at the end of the Ukrainian leader’s surprise European tour that grabbed the headlines. And in London, Zelensky used his speech in parliament to call for ways to help fight Russia in the air.

“I appeal to you with simple, but most important words, Fighter Jets for Ukraine, Wings for Freedom,” he said.

And the Ukrainian president repeated that call in Paris and Brussels, in a rare exit from his country, in light of the strictest security measures. It made headlines all over the world.

In Warsaw, President Duda told me that sending F-16s would cause a “serious problem” because with less than 50 aircraft in the Polish Air Force “we don’t have enough, we’ll need more.”

He also stressed that combat aircraft, such as the F-16, are in dire need of maintenance, so “it is not enough just to send a few aircraft.”

With Poland being a NATO member, Duda said, any decision to provide fighter jets should be a “joint decision,” not one made by any one country alone.

There are also questions about whether providing the aircraft would lead NATO directly into conflict, and even into war against Russia itself. At the start of the war a year ago, Duda said that sending planes would “open a military intervention in the Ukrainian conflict”. But, in direct response to Kiev’s request for planes this week, the Polish leader’s comments were significant.

As Ukraine’s neighbor, President Duda has been one of Zelensky’s most ardent supporters, contributed massive amounts of military aid, and has become a major supplier of heavy weapons, including infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, drones, and ammunition.

Duda has also been at the forefront of pushing other allies to promise tanks in recent weeks.

After notable hesitation from Germany, and heated debate across Europe about the risks of conflict escalation, the Leopards will arrive in Ukraine, along with competitors from Britain and Abrams from the United States.

Poland has also provided homes to millions of Ukrainian refugees.

Duda insists that “weapons must be delivered to Ukraine all the time… it needs weapons.” But he clearly does not think sending fighter jets in large numbers is likely from Poland or any other ally, at least in the short term.

Britain also made it very quickly clear that sending planes to Ukraine was not realistic in the near future.

“Yes,” said Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, “there was nothing on the table,” as he relished a photo opportunity with Zelensky in front of a tank this week.

But before long, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace made clear that would mean training pilots and other support first. No British planes will be taking off to Ukraine anytime soon.

And all week, British politicians made sure to link up with the world’s most famous political figure of the moment, President Zelensky, sharing their blurry phone footage of his historic speech at Westminster Hall and giving interviews about the impact of his presence there.

In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron received him as a movie star in front of the Elysee Palace. The EU leaders then tweeted a picture of their “handshake and smile” moment with the Ukrainian leader later.

There is strong support for President Zelensky, without a doubt. This is not only presented with flowery language and promises of commitment, but, as President Duda explains, with guns, tanks and drones, as well as support for refugees, rather than taking selfies with deputies.

Leaders like Poland’s president stress the threat they feel to their countries. Talking to him in Warsaw about the conflict is a world away from the talks in Westminster, as the Russian border in Kaliningrad is only 320 kilometers away.

The planes dilemma is another example of the fraught calculations our leaders face. What is practically possible in terms of support for Ukraine? What is feasible politically and diplomatically, without provoking a wider war?

Strong support for Poland and other countries does not mean that the West, or even Ukraine’s closest allies, will or can say “yes” to every request you make. Of course, President Zelensky is well aware of this, notes one prominent diplomatic source.

And his headline-grabbing trip this week wasn’t just about planes, and it doesn’t look like it will soon lead to Wings for Freedom. But, as we approach the first anniversary of the war, the delicate choreography of his European tour and the powerful imagery he took will remind not only Western politicians, but also their audiences, of what is at stake.