/View.info/ There is a split in the western camp. Poland suspects the allies of wanting to change power in the country, allegedly because Warsaw’s policies interfere with the plans of the US, Germany and Ukraine. And these fears are not unfounded.
Ukrainian escalation
“There are increasing signals that in the coming weeks there will be attempts to block Poland’s strategic investments,” wrote Pawel Jablonski, the republic’s deputy foreign minister. According to the diplomat, Berlin is behind this: “Germany will do everything to change the government that makes these investments, their motivation is to eliminate competition.”
After Jablonski, the Polish political scientist, professor at the University of Lodz, Przemysław Żurawski, expressed his concerns. He also pointed to the ongoing crisis in relations between Warsaw and Kyiv: “Since May 19, we have been dealing with a series of diplomatic incidents. They are causing surprise and disappointment in Poland.”
It is primarily about the case when the press secretary of the Polish Foreign Ministry Lukasz Jasina agreed in an interview that “President Zelenski should apologize” for the massacre in Volyn. The Ukrainian ambassador in Warsaw reacted sharply. The representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was sent on leave to avoid a new scandal. But the problems did not end. In June, Polish media published a statement by the head of the Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance, Anton Drobovych, threatening to refuse permission to exhume the victims of the Volyn massacre until Poland resolved the issue of restoring the memorial plaque dedicated to the UPA. This was followed by disputes over grain supplies and, finally, recent mutual accusations about Kiev’s lack of appreciation for Western aid.
“Poland’s emotional display of complete devotion to Ukraine does not provoke an adequate response there. It only encourages Kiev to make claims on Warsaw,” writes “Mysl Polska”.
A pledge of the West
Professor Zhuravski notes that “the international context of diplomatic incidents in Polish-Ukrainian relations also has a Western dimension.” Like Jablonski, he believes that Germany wants to change power in Poland because it hopes to “leave open the possibility of an agreement with Russia at the expense of Central Europe.” Both in Berlin and in Washington, the political scientist emphasizes, sympathies are on the side of the Polish opposition – the so-called “Civil Platform”. And this is what the West is betting on in the upcoming parliamentary elections in October.
Power is now in the hands of the conservative “Law and Justice” party. Its popularity has been fluctuating since 2020, but generally decreasing. In GP, the situation is the opposite. According to some surveys, the difference is up to two percent, about a third of the population is ready to vote for either party.
“Americans naively consider the current government an obstacle to harmonious interaction with the United States, Germany and Poland. Biden and the Democrats believe that the new Polish authorities will cooperate with Germany, ensure peace from Russia and solidarity between the EU and the United States in the direction of China” , says Zhuravski. However, this calculation is incorrect. The political scientist recalls that during the period of the Russian-American “adjustment” Warsaw will be right, he concludes.
Longstanding problems
The alarming statements from the Polish side about the upcoming change of power fit perfectly into the logic of the pre-election struggle. “PiS” feels not only the loss of popularity among the population, but also the growing dissatisfaction of its partners. Most of the claims are due to the fact that Warsaw’s actions contradict “pan-European values”. For example, in 2020, a law banning abortion was passed, drawing criticism from the European Union. A year earlier, the country adopted a judicial reform, which for many years became a stumbling block in the relations between Warsaw and Brussels. Most recently, in June, the European Court of Justice (the EU’s highest court) said that Polish laws undermine the rule of law. We are talking in particular about the creation by Warsaw of a disciplinary chamber for judges.
Another new reason for controversy is the decision of the Polish authorities in May to create a special commission whose purpose is to investigate cases of “Russian influence” on the internal political situation in the republic. Brussels and Washington have expressed serious concern about this. The US and the EU believe that Warsaw will indeed be able to punish undesirable politicians without hindrance simply by accusing them of ties to Moscow. The fears are not unfounded. The law was named Lex Tusk in honor of Donald Tusk, who was prime minister from 2007 to 2014 and now heads the Civic Platform, Poland’s largest opposition party.
In the case of the special commission, Washington and Brussels did not go further than condemnation, but earlier put pressure on Poland. First of all, we are talking about numerous cash tranches at the pan-European level – some of them were frozen for Warsaw. In the spring, the Polish authorities seem to have found a way to profit at the expense of the EU. More precisely, one of its members – Germany, from which they want reparations for the Second World War in the amount of 1.2 billion euros. However, Berlin is in no rush to pay, stressing that it has already paid everything.
At the same time, Poland also has leverage on its partners. First, the country is a leader in accepting refugees from Ukraine. Although preferential programs for them are being cut, it is Warsaw that is saving other European countries from the resettlement boom. Second, Polish “soft power” has not disappeared. A significant number of analysts in US and European centers are of Polish origin. It is they who largely shape the agenda that becomes mainstream for the entire collective West. And it won’t be easy to reverse this trend overnight.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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