Updated on December 12, 2020, 8:56 pm
- Although the majority of Scots wanted to remain members of the European Union, the country had to leave as part of Great Britain at the end of January.
- This has always caused anger and resentment in Scotland – which is now worsening in view of the impending consequences.
- Is there even a threat of a second referendum now?
If it had only gone to Scotland, everything would be different today: Great Britain would still be a member of the EU, tough negotiations about one Withdrawal Agreement There would be just as little as the fear of a hard Brexit and quarrels about fishing rights, social and environmental standards. Because 62 percent of the Scots voted “Remain” in the referendum on leaving the EU – wanted to Member of the EU stay.
The bitter pill, however: Scotland had to go along as part of the United Kingdom and stepped on January 31, 2020 from the EU. It will remain until the end of the year Part of the EU internal market and the customs union. To date, there is no treaty on future relations with the EU.
“The Scots is with that now expected no-deal very unhappy, but will not be able to prevent it, “says political scientist Tanja Börzel from the Free University of Berlin. In general, Scotland is in one miserable situation: “The vast majority of Scots actually wanted to remain a member of the EU, but are now losing that Advantages of the EU single marketand Great Britain will not be able to make up for that, “says Börzel.
Little interest from Johnson
Because everything the British government wants to compensate cannot be met. “That ranges from Subsidies for structurally weak regions in northern England to project funding for British universities by the European Research Council, “explains Börzel. Because the Scots little political influence on UK policy, they would have little chance of getting a big piece of the pie in the redistribution struggle.
“Johnson is interested in Scotland relatively low“, says the expert Börzel. He doesn’t need Scotland politically, because the” strongholds “of the Tories are in England – in the Brexit negotiations it is Therefore focus on Englandwhere most of the British live. “The majority of the Tories are not prepared to make concessions to the EU and would rather accept a hard Brexit in return,” says Börzel. If he approached the bulkheads here, he would have a row with his own parliamentary group, the expert is certain. “And without Johnson’s approval they get no second referendum“adds Börzel.
Call for a second referendum
That is exactly what the Scots are currently demanding: As early as 2014, they had over the Independence from the UK voted, but decided to stay with a narrow majority. Because the cards were reshuffled by the decision for a Brexit and the corona crisis, the 5.5 million-inhabitant country wants to vote again.
But it’s not that simple: “Johnson rejected the call for a second independence referendum in January 2020 – without the approval of the UK government But the Scots cannot hold an independence referendum “, explains expert Börzel. The argument goes:” In a democracy you cannot vote so often until the result is right. The Scots should have thought about that beforehand, that Brexit referendum has been in the room since 2013“, explains the political scientist.
Missing threatening backdrop
Because secession from the United Kingdom is a long way off, the Scots lack one Threatening backdrop: “With the rejected independence, the Scots have given up a lever. Because now it is territorial integrity Britain’s no longer at stake, “says Börzel. The threat to leave the UK, if really one hard Brexit will not be effective because it cannot be implemented without the approval of the British government.
The forced marriage cannot hide the fact that the Scots think differently: “They are political not so conservative how many Britons are hired, “says Börzel. Nicola Sturgeon is the Scottish Prime Minister left-wing liberal Scottish National Party (SNP).
Less than ten percent of the seats in the lower house
“The Labor Party is almost non-existent in Scotland, the Scottish National Party – which has a similar agenda – essentially has it all votes taken away“, so Börzel further. This means that the Scots in the British Parliament are only represented by the SNP.
A look at the one there Power distribution: The British House of Commons counts 650 MPs. The ruling party – the Conservative Party, also known as the Tories – has 362 seats. The Social Democratic Labor Party alone holds 201 of the 277 opposition seats. The SNP only provides 48 seats – less than 10 percent. “There is therefore little to tear for the Scots ruled by Social Democrats, especially when the conservative Tories are in power with a full majority,” said Börzel.
Less left behind in Scotland
The main reason why the Scots voted so differently from the English in 2016 is socio-economic differences. “In England there are more so-called dependent population groups, more people see themselves as losers in globalization and feel left behind in the restructuring away from an industrialized to a digitized society”, explains expert Börzel.
Besides, be the English press have always been very Eurosceptic to hostile. “The Scottish media tend to report more positively about Europe and the EU,” said the expert.
Bad chances for EU membership
Do the Scots still have a chance to become part of the EU again? The first requirement would be one Split from the UK – the difficulties of a second referendum have already been mentioned. But even after that there would be imponderables:
“A independent Scotland would by no means simply be accepted into the EU, “believes Börzel.
Scotland would have to apply for EU membership and then would have a bad chance. “Countries like Spain, which are themselves involved in secessionist movements, will not agree to the admission of a country that has split off.” Expert Börzel sees it rather Great Britain’s internal cohesion at risk. The lack of awareness of the subject of Brexit in the British public is shocking. “If the Scots soon die Consequences of Brexit get to feel, could exacerbate their displeasure “, estimates Börzel.
About the expert: Prof. Dr. Tanja Börzel is a political scientist at the Otto Suhr Institute for Political and Social Sciences at the Free University of Berlin. She is the head of the European Integration Office.
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