At the end of 2018, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicted a doubling of world air traffic by 2036. While only
1.5 billion passengers had taken the plane in 2003, it was no less than 4.3 billion passengers who had just crossed the sky during the past year. At that time, it was all about airport congestion and the challenge of increasing aircraft production. A year later, a mysterious virus from China began to question air transport players. The year 2020 will indeed prove to be thedose horribilis sector, with a 60% drop in activity (and even 75% in international traffic).
Does air transport, whose traffic has doubled every 15 years since 1945, still have a future? At the cost of dubious amalgamations between the ecological emergency and the onset of the pandemic, some have cast shame on one of the most remarkable inventions of humanity, a formidable accelerator of tourist, economic, scientific and cultural exchanges. The terrifying injunction of the mayor of Poitiers (the air must no longer be part of children’s dreams
) has caused trouble for the future of the sector. Can we thus throw away this mode of transport which allows families and friends to meet, citizens of the world to know and understand each other better?
Towards a new form of aviation
Far from disappearing, air transport is reinventing itself. Two technologies are making giant leaps. The electric plane, first of all, of which a (Slovenian) model is already certified by the aviation safety agency of the European Union; the hydrogen airplane, then, which should establish itself in the field of wide-body aircraft in the 2030s.
These planes are, at present, of low autonomy. It will take a few more technological leaps
to hope to have very efficient batteries. But a new form of aviation, made up of flying taxis operating short distances, is about to develop. These will come across civilian drones, already in service to ensure drug supplies on isolated islands. As the distances traveled by these zero-emission aircraft are modest, it will be necessary to have a denser runway network. Tracks hitherto very little used will be able to find a new purpose.
Together, the traditional aerial will come back to life. Once the pandemic is over, demand for air transport will quickly return to its pre-crisis level. While travel for professional reasons may become scarce (due to the habit of meeting by videoconference), consumers around the world (and in particular those in emerging countries) have not lost their taste for tourism and the discovery of new Horizons. Remember that new generation aircraft (such as the Airbus A350) consume between 10 to 20% less than their predecessors and that their noise footprint is reduced by 40%. It is therefore most likely that air transport will quickly come back to life with traditional aircraft while a new form of carbon-free aviation develops which will gradually supplant US aviation. world before
.
– .
