This week will see important key figures for the economies of the US and the eurozone. Chief economist Kyrre Knudsen believes that Norway is at a crossroads.
PMI: Kyrre Knudsen follows the PMI figures for Europe and the US this week. Photo: Jan Inge HagaPublished: Published:
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The so-called “purchasing managers’ index” (PMI) will be presented in both the US and the eurozone on Thursday.
The index indicates the temperature in the European and American economy.
Chief economist Kyrre Knudsen at Sparebanken 1 SR-Bank is keeping a close eye on the figures to come.
– The USA has been much stronger than expected so far this year. All signals that strengthen or weaken belief in interest rate cuts are very interesting, says Knudsen to E24.
– Norway is further behind the track and is in a way at a crossroads now. The question is whether the development will be like in the USA or Europe. The figures on Thursday will give us an important clue as to whether the US and Europe are converging in terms of development – or whether they are still pulling in the opposite direction.
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Industrial wages lag far behind. It can provide high additions in the spring.
Knudsen adds that the most obvious explanation for the big difference is that the economy in Europe is hit faster and harder by the war in Ukraine.
DNB Markets writes in its expectations report for the week that they believe the Eurozone PMI will show a small increase from 47.9 in January – which is also the highest in six months – up to 48.2 so far this month.
Values above 50 indicate growth and increased activity, while values below 50 are an expression of decline.
– If there is a positive surprise in the figures, we believe it could change the market’s expectations of a new interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, writes DNB Markets.
Down after five weeks of growth
At the same time, the results season rolls on: Several large Norwegian companies open their accounting books for the fourth quarter this week.
Among other things, Aker will go to the press already on Tuesday.
Several large consumer chains in the US, such as Walmart and Home Depot, will also present accounts for the last quarter of last year. The quarter which, among other things, contains their most lucrative season: the Christmas trade.
Although Christmas shopping did well in the US, thinks analyst Alexandra Straton in Morgan Stanley that the strong Christmas season is already “baked in” in the sector’s share prices.
On Monday, the American stock exchanges are closed in connection with President’s Day.
The stock market in the US ended down on Friday after a “wild” week.
The US producer price index for January, which was presented on Friday, rose 0.3 percent from the previous month. It was somewhat higher than analysts thought, and the fear that inflation is still too high and that the interest rate cuts will be delayed – increased.
All three major indexes ended the week overall down, after five weeks with rise.
This is happening this week
Monday:
- The stock exchanges in the USA and Canada are closed.
Tuesday:
- LO’s representative board meeting adopts the requirements in this year’s salary settlement.
- Parat’s negotiating committee also adopts its demands.
- Aker, Bakkafrost and newcomer Norconsult present their quarterly report.
- Barclays, Home Depot and Walmart present their accounts.
Wednesday:
- Zaptec presents the figures for the last quarter of last year.
- Federal Reserve: Minutes from the January policy meeting.
Thursday:
- Grieg Seafood, Byggma and Viaplay are among the companies that open their accounting books for the fourth quarter.
- PMI in the eurozone and the US for the time being in February.
Friday:
- DOF Group and Proximar Seafood report for the last quarter of last year.
- Statistics Norway presents the figures for debt growth in Norway.
Show moreMINUTES: On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve in the USA will present the minutes from the meeting at the end of January. Photo: EVELYN HOCKSTEIN / Reuters
– Can be quite important
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve in the USA will present the minutes from the policy meeting at the end of January.
It can have an impact on expectations for interest rates, says Knudsen at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank.
– It can be quite important. It can affect when the market thinks we will get the first interest rate cut. There is still some chance for June. If the report says something about when it will happen, it may have some impact, says Knudsen.
DNB Markets admittedly writes in its expectations report for the week that the minutes from the meeting 2.5 weeks ago will not have much to say.
– The reason is that the minutes are already a little out of date. Since the meeting, we have been presented with “nonfarm payrolls” and the consumer price index, which have come in stronger than expected, writes DNB Markets.
Read on E24+
This is what you need to know about this year’s salary settlement
Accepts claims
Here at home in Norway, the stage is immediately set for salary settlements.
On Friday, the Technical Calculation Committee (TBU) came out with its preliminary report with estimates for the price increase. TBU believes the price increase will be 4.1 per cent. The parties take that figure into the negotiations.
On Tuesday this week, LO’s representative board will adopt its demands. The YS union Parat’s negotiating committee also adopts its demands.
The other party in NHO’s representative board will not adopt their positions until two weeks from now. There is a lot of excitement about the salary settlement, which this year is a main settlement main settlement Wage settlement is either a main settlement or an interim settlement, and it is changed every two years. In interim settlements, only wages are negotiated, while in main settlements, major issues and the entire collective agreement, including pension and working hours, are also negotiated.
The settlement will determine wage growth for large groups in Norwegian working life. Increased purchasing powerIncreased purchasing powerWhen wage growth is higher than price growth, also called real wage growth, is the main demand from the Confederation.
Together with the YS confederation Parat, the Fellesforbundet represents the employees in the important front trade negotiations. There they meet Norsk Industri from NHO on the employer side.
The front subject settlement does not start until March 15. It’s in just over three weeks.
After the parties in the front line have agreed, negotiations follow in other industries in the private sector and in the public sector.
2024-02-18 20:19:27
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