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The death toll for October 2021 so far is 2.11 times more than the death toll for the whole of October 2020 from coronavirus infection. This was written on social networks by the mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov.
According to him, the development of the fourth wave is as expected – the formation of a secondary peak of the wave and high mortality. He declined to comment on COVID-19 mortality, but provided information on the subject:
died at the end of September 2021 – 20882
died to this day – 21813
died October 2020 (for the whole month) – 441
died for October 2021 – 931 (for 11 days.
The data show that according to the map according to the plan of the Ministry of Health, the number of level 4 districts is growing slowly.
“Today there are 7 together with the candidates. The bad thing is that Sofia-city is already a candidate for level 4. Soon the candidacies of Yambol and Blagoevgrad will reappear. In the Rhodopes the situation is calmer,” the mathematician wrote. He reiterates that there will be no total lockdown on October 15, because the number of registered cases will not reach 10,000 a day then.
Prof. Vitanov has also made a risk map according to the plan of the Ministry of Health. According to her, the areas at level 4 are not many yet, although their number is expected to grow. On the 15th, the situation is not expected to require a total lockdown across the country.
“The districts of Shumen, Pleven and Kardzhali are good compared to the others, a local lockdown is expected, ie tightening of the measures. When I say lockdown, I understand what happened at the end of March and the beginning of April last year,” the mathematician wrote. He again made a risk map according to the NIGHT methodology. According to her, Sofia-city has not yet entered the violet zone as an area.
“However, Plovdiv entered and, figuratively speaking, fell into the abyss. Sofia will last for some time. The longer it lasts, the longer our problems will gradually increase,” he added. His calculations show that today the basic reproductive number is 1,168, and the expectations are for a continuing gradual deterioration of the situation.
“Yesterday I wrote – the virus is burning us on a slow fire, its tactic is to overthrow the health system by gradually increasing the pressure on it. The health system still has the strength to defend itself, but this work will not last long if the pressure of the virus 1.168 speaks of quite strong pressure, although the number is below 1.3. You can see what happens to the number of active cases. They transferred a round number and went to a round number where the first 2 digits are the same “, warns Prof. Vitanov.
According to him, the spread of the infection in the country is slightly diffuse – today 15 districts have such a spread, at the beginning of last week there were 11.
“And this indicator has deteriorated. In short – yesterday I wrote that this week will not be easy. Today I think it is clear to all of you that it really will not be easy,” said the mathematician.
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