The growth of the national economy is expected to reach 4.6% in 2025, according to the three-year budget execution and macroeconomic framework report accompanying the draft finance law (PLF) for next year.
“This notable progression is mainly explained by a significant rebound in agricultural value added, based on the assumption of an average agricultural campaign. At the same time, non-agricultural value added should continue to grow at a rate similar to that forecast for 2024,” specifies the report published on the website of the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
The secondary and tertiary sectors are expected to strengthen their performance, with respective growth rates of 2.9% and 4.1% in 2025, the report adds.
This document highlights that the forecasts for the coming year are based on various assumptions related to the national and international environment.
At the national level, an agricultural harvest estimated at 70 million quintals should promote a recovery in the agricultural sector, with an expected growth of 11% in added value.
At the same time, non-agricultural value added is expected to continue its expansion at the previous year’s pace, with a growth rate of 3.7% in 2025.
According to the report, exports would experience a slight deceleration, returning to the average, and should increase by 7.1% in 2025, while imports would increase by 6.8%.
On the domestic demand side, growth would be mainly driven by exports, which should contribute 3 percentage points. However, this positive contribution would be offset by the growth of imports, resulting in a negative effect of -3.8 percentage points.
Thus, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth would be estimated at -0.8 percentage points.
Furthermore, the report indicates that final consumption is expected to make a significant contribution of 3.9 percentage points to growth, mainly due to the increase in household spending, which is expected to contribute 2.8 percentage points.
General government consumption is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points, while gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would contribute 0.8 percentage points.
This report is structured in three main parts: the first examines the recent evolution of the national economy in the international context and the outlook for the main national macroeconomic indicators. The second part is dedicated to the state of budget execution in terms of revenue, expenditure and debt indicators for 2023 and up to the end of June 2024, as well as to the revised projections of public finances for the current year. Finally, the third part highlights the budgetary orientations and macroeconomic outlook for the period 2025-2027.
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– 2024-09-14 18:07:06
