Janis Sārts, head of NATO’s Strategic Communications Center of Excellence Stratcom, is “cautiously optimistic” about Ukraine’s ability to prevail in Russia’s war.
As Sārts noted in an interview with TV3, Russia has waged a “cowardly war” in Ukraine over the past month, shooting to pieces, shooting at civilians and engaging little in direct confrontation.
Now that the second phase of the war has begun, when Russia has chosen to concentrate its forces in the Donbass, it will be forced into a direct confrontation again. According to Pink, Russia’s goal could be to besiege a larger Ukrainian army group in Donbass and then either try to go to Kiev or start “peace talks”.
According to Pink, despite the regrouping of forces, the basic problems of the Russian army have not disappeared – “the commanders are incompetent, the supply is a jacket”, and accordingly he is “cautiously optimistic” about Ukraine’s ability to prevail. Pink noted that in addition, the United States will now give “virtually everything” in terms of armaments.
The head of the NATO headquarters acknowledged that the war in Donbass could last, but it could just as well end in a month, for example, when Russia tried to “freeze” the war.
On the other hand, the situation in Mariopole, where small groups of Ukrainian soldiers have been under siege for a long time, is pessimistic, not really believing that they can wait until the Ukrainian forces will be able to counterattack and break the siege. He is convinced that even more horrific war crimes committed by the Russian army will be revealed in Mariopole than in the vicinity of Kiev.
Speaking of propaganda, Sārts admitted that about half of Russia’s population might actually support the war with Ukraine, but he did not really believe the big figures in support, because it was important for the regime to claim in its propaganda that it was supported by everyone in order to “break” the hesitation. .
Sārts noted that very aggressive Russian rhetoric, possible provocations and perhaps even cyber attacks in connection with the forthcoming accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, which will significantly change the security situation in the Baltic Sea region, are very important for Latvia. unwanted.
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