What is going on? Few pigs, which are not yet heavy either, and therefore little to sell meat. You would think that these are the ingredients for a better pig price. But nothing could be further from the truth. The processing industry is asking for a little less meat due to the holidays and the moderate weather has not resulted in extra demand for BBQ meat.
It is becoming increasingly attractive to bring the pigs across the border
So the Dutch slaughterhouses think: we can push the pig price down. Initially, Vion was entrusted to realize such a thing. The rest of the slaughterhouses follow obediently, because no one wants to miss this gift. Compaxo thinks: there will still be enough pigs, so we’re taking 6 cents off the price. The others did ‘only’ 4 cents. The Farmer’s Pig Prize also reluctantly had to be reduced by 4 cents.
The supply of pigs has increased slightly in the last week, but it is still extremely low. This increase is then cited as the reason for the fall in pig prices. The supply of pigs in week 29 was 258,000 pigs with a weight of 97.9 kilograms. In the same week, 21,500 pigs crossed the border to be slaughtered abroad, in particular Germany. This number will certainly increase, as Germany kept its price unchanged last Wednesday. It is becoming increasingly attractive to bring the pigs across the border.
What will Germany do? Tönnies has looked at the Netherlands and shouts: minus 7 cents on Wednesday. But what will really happen on Wednesday? What does the ISN want? Certainly not minus 7 cents and if the price does have to drop, this will be 2 or 3 cents. In the message from the ISN on Friday, the reduction in the Netherlands is hardly mentioned and there is talk of a tight supply that is quickly taken up at unchanged prices.
Tönnies does try to put pressure on by reducing the number of slaughters during the week. But the pigs then often quickly go to the smaller slaughterhouses that they often want and see their chance to get the hooks filled. So there is also a chance that Germany will simply record unchanged on Wednesday. If this happens, the slaughterhouses here in the Netherlands will have to adjust their prices upwards again.
If necessary, all Dutch pigs can be slaughtered in Germany
German slaughterhouses do complain about the costs of overcapacity, which is why the price of pigs should fall. But a fall in the price of pigs will not solve the problem. Clearly, the number of slaughter hooks needs to be reduced, because at the moment there is 35 percent too much slaughter capacity and this will increase to 50 percent by the end of 2024.
This overcapacity in Germany is a godsend for Dutch pig farmers. If necessary, all Dutch pigs can be slaughtered in Germany. So as a slaughterhouse I would be a little careful about pushing down the pig price. In Germany, Vion knows how it works to get rid of a large part of the pigs. Besides, they have learned nothing from it. They do it in the Netherlands too. As if it is the most normal thing in the world that Vion is allowed to set the price.
Back to Germany for a moment. The pressure has not gone unnoticed on the pig market. The Teleporc price dropped 3 cents on Friday and only 2 of the 8 couples were sold. Just across Europe. That Vion likes to drop the price becomes clear when you look at Europe. From North to South, from East to West. From Denmark to Spain. From Hungary to Belgium. Everyone kept their listing unchanged.
Piglet market suffers from the pressure of the pig price
Fattening pig farmers are becoming more cautious. How high is the pig price in November? What will the feed price do in the near future? The wheat price rose rapidly by 40 euros to 265 euros on the stock exchange in France. This has now fallen slightly to 247 euros, but what effect does this have on the piglet market? Insecurities and no one wants to work for the loss. So demand decreases. The supply will soon be even more and then the price in Spain will also drop by 3 euros. All ingredients for a lower piglet price. And that is why the Farmer Piglet price drops by 2 euros to 84 euros.
Germany is still holding its ground and remains unchanged. The pressure on the piglet market will remain for a while. At least for the next few weeks. We can take stock at the end of August. Has Germany been able to keep pig prices afloat? Is the feed market back at the level of 220 euros for wheat or is it already below that. How far is the war in Ukraine? Will this country be able to reach the Sea of Azov in the short term, so that the Russians are cut off from the Crimea and thus have to withdraw from southern Ukraine? But also the wet monsoon for the Netherlands in the coming week.; it all affects the feed price.
For everyone who is on vacation, keep enjoying. For everyone who has a holiday soon, the weather will certainly get better.
2023-07-30 18:51:52
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