“So far, more has been done to help households cope with the crisis than to help businesses.” This is the analysis of Pierre Wunsch, the governor of the National Bank (BNB), heard this Wednesday in the House, in the Economy Committee. Pierre Wunsch and Piet Vanthemsche came to answer questions from MEPs as co-chairs of the Economic risk management group (ERMG), this working group charged by the federal government with measuring the impact of the crisis and proposing support measures.
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“We must not delude ourselves: there will be damage and part of the current temporary unemployment will become structural.”
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“At this stage, we have done more to support household incomes, while little has been done for corporate solvency“insisted Pierre Wunsch. Admittedly, measures were quickly taken to counter liquidity stress (extended temporary unemployment, bank guarantee, regional bonuses, etc.). But” we must not delude ourselves: there will be damage and part of the current temporary unemployment will become structural. We must do everything to avoid this shift “, underlined Pierre Wunsch.
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The priority now is to avoid solvency problems, synonymous with bankruptcies and lasting job losses. However, “a solvency problem cannot be solved by loan guarantees. There must be another instrument than the bank guarantees provided so far.”
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OK, but what measures? Pierre Wunsch remains very cautious, pleading for general measures at first. Some sectors are more affected than others (such as catering, culture, non-food businesses), “but we believe that we need to provide as many transversal solutions as possible. Because if you are embarking on sectoral measures , you create a major risk of unequal treatment. ”
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As for the necessary stimulus measures, the governor believes it is too early to decide. We will have to see, for example, what the consumer will do. With confinement, “there is forced savings, at least for 2/3 of households that have preserved their income, since people cannot consume. This forced savings can finance the recovery of the economy, if confidence is not too much started “at the end of the crisis. But much will also depend on the evolution of the financial markets and the international situation …
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In a few figures, the governor also planted the current decor of the Belgian economy.
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- 41% of private sector employees are temporarily unemployed (i.e. 1.3 million people)
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- 50% of the self-employed use bridge law (nearly 400,000 people)
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- Private sector sales 34% below normal
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- 7% of companies say they face bankruptcy risk in the coming months
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