Earth’s climate is changing mainly because of humans.
Large amounts of greenhouse gas releases and global warming may, in the long term, throw the global climate into a state of no return. This is according to a new study by scientists from the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Porto in Portugal. According to her, humanity has already stepped towards unstoppable chaos.
Our planet’s climate goes through regular and natural phases that are controlled by external factors such as changes in the Earth’s orbit or massive increases in volcanic activity. However, past researches have already drawn attention to the fact that we are now in a completely new era influenced by human activity, which has lasted since the middle of the 20th century, when there was an increase in population growth, industrialization and globalization.
This period is called the Anthropocene. The term was first used by ecologist Eugene Stoermer and popularized at the beginning of the new millennium by Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen. In a new study, scientists point out that together we are creating a new era of the Anthropocene that has not been here before.
Climate – forecast
“In our models, we introduced the Anthropocene as a phase transition. Just as ice changes to liquid or water to gas, the climate changes due to human activity,” explains physicist and researcher Orfeu Bertolami. “A given climate ensures regular and predictable seasons. But when a long-term and characteristic weather regime undergoes a phase transition, Earth is experiencing a sudden and rapid change in given patterns.” What the new structures will look like is one of the most pressing issues in climate science.
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In order to obtain the most accurate results possible, where the various choices of humanity will lead, they worked with a mathematical tool called the Logistic Map. Researchers use it, for example, to predict animal populations. They can increase their number of individuals only until they consume all the food or their predators exterminate them.
The researchers modeled different scenarios of how the human Logistic Map might evolve depending on various variables, such as population height, the introduction of carbon reduction strategies or better technologies. Once they figured out where greenhouse gas production would go over time, they figured out what the climate would look like in the next few decades. Two forecasts came out.
The limits of humanity
The more optimistic one reckons that once humanity reaches its carbon production limit, Earth’s climate will stabilize at a new, higher average temperature. This will lead to melting glaciers and more extreme weather. But it will be stable and practically nothing would have to change.
In 2030, a small ice age is expected to occur. It could have a catastrophic impact on Earth
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In the worst case, there will be chaos in which there will be no balance. The weather will change unpredictably. Also, Earth’s average temperature could fluctuate wildly, and the seasons we’re used to would come in relatively short periods of time. It would be quite impossible to determine which direction the climate is going. “Chaotic behavior would mean that we would not be able to control and steer the Earth’s systems towards an equilibrium state that affects the biosphere,” says Bertolami.
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Some scientists say there are signs that we have already passed a certain critical threshold temperature and climate chaos is inevitable. However, it is not too late to avert disaster.
Source:
www.cs.wikipedia.org, www.livescience.com, www.tecnobreak.com
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