Let’s start by agreeing that the Suns are going to be in a pretty tricky situation in a few years. As of now, there are only four players under contract for 26/27 who will collectively eat up around $150 million in cap space – Kevin Durant is not one of them. If he is still there in the 26/27 season, he would be 38 years old at the start of the season.
Maybe then it would be time for a rebuild, but this isn’t actually an option for Phoenix. The team will never draw its own first-round pick until 2031. Perhaps that will change should the team at some point be willing to part ways with Durant or, that would be even more changing, Devin Booker. Either way, the Suns will soon face some pretty turbulent times.
This is the logical consequence of the aggressiveness with which Phoenix has been acting since Mat Ishbia took over in December 2022 – rarely has a team been so all-in, so deep in post-me-the-deluge mode. However, today’s question is not how the phoenix can one day rise again from the ashes caused by activism.
Rather, today is about what happens between now and then. After a disappointing year and a half under Ishbia, can the Suns at least be a real contender before the Flames swallow everything up? In fact, there are at least a few reasons to hope that the team’s potential is being a little underestimated ahead of the new season.
Mat Ishbia is the main shareholder of the Phoenix Suns. picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS
Phoenix Suns: No wiggle room, but…
Actually, the Suns – due to the situation with their draft picks and financial obligations (24/25 and 25/26 they will be a second apron team) – had little room to make any changes to their incomplete roster in the offseason. However, compared to that, they earned some top marks over the summer.
The most important free agents such as Royce O’Neale (4 years, 42 million dollars) and Josh Okogie (2 years, 16 million dollars) were retained, with salaries that could also be used in trades if necessary. In the draft, No. 28 pick Ryan Dunn and No. 40 pick Oso Ighodaro were traded in order to bring at least some young talent to the relatively old team.
Most importantly, the Suns successfully hit the free agency ramp and actually managed to address some of their weak points. Mason Plumlee, an urgently needed center alternative, as well as Monte Morris and the big prize, who will be one of the most underpaid players in the league next season: Tyus Jones, each received the minimum.
Phoenix Suns: Tyus Jones is a victim of his circumstances
Jones is perhaps the biggest victim of the new financial reality in the NBA – last season he earned a (fair) 14 million and played the best statistical year of his career in Washington. Only there was no market and he will only make 2.1 million in Phoenix. Next year he can make a new attempt and should then be unstoppable for the Suns, until then the point guard is still something of a major prize.
Phoenix was an extremely turnover-prone team last season without a real point guard – Jones played 23/24, the best season since data collection (1977) in terms of assist-turnover rate (7.35 assists per turnover). He has led the league in this category five years in a row. The bottom line is that he may even be a bit too risk-averse, but that shouldn’t be a negative thing in this team with so much firepower and so few good passers so far.
Jones is the classic playmaker that the Suns missed at the end of games (no ambitious team was worse in the fourth quarter). He is also a capable shooter himself who can create space for the star wings (last season: 41.4% three-pointers). It is expected that he will start and can bring a new kind of structure to the team.
Tyus Jones should bring more order to the Suns’ game. picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS
Phoenix Suns: Jones is not a solution to all problems
Not that his arrival would solve all (or all) of the problems. An already small, slender team becomes smaller and slimmer thanks to the 1.85m man – his presence is likely to harm the defense, which achieved a surprisingly respectable 13th place last season.
If he replaces Grayson Allen in the starting five, last season’s best three-point shooter will also be eliminated (46.1%) – after all, Phoenix cannot be expected to bring a member of the “Big Three” off the bench, even if they do that with Bradley Beal might not be a bad idea in terms of sport.
Allen will still spend a lot of time on the court next to the three stars, but it will also be important that the stars themselves increase their three-point volume a little in order to unleash their offensive potential. Before the 23/24 season, many thought Phoenix would have the best offensive rating in league history – but the three-point rate was simply too low for that. The Suns reached ninth place.
Phoenix Suns: The next attempt
Jones – and new head coach Mike Budenholzer, who replaced Frank Vogel – can help Phoenix look better in that regard. He can also help take the creative load off of Booker and Beal in particular, leaving them with more energy for defense. However, it has no influence on other, structural problems.
Phoenix never achieved continuity in 23/24, although Durant (75) and Booker (68) were able to play a normal number of games (Booker) and VERY many games (Durant), respectively, for their standards. Things were different with Beal (53), so the three stars only played a total of 41 games together. Looking at it soberly, given the collective history of injuries, this is probably not an outlier.
Of course, Ishbia still hopes otherwise. “We didn’t put this team together for a one-year trial. We put it together because we love these three guys,” the owner said during Summer League. To be fair, the Suns’ hands are tied anyway: Beal, undoubtedly the most expendable star, still earns $160 million over the next three years and has an absurd no-trade clause on top of that.
Kevin Durant turned 36 in September. picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS
Phoenix Suns: How will Durant’s load be regulated?
Phoenix is also tied to a solution in the center position that is not ideal, but more or less has no alternative. Jusuf Nurkic is a good passer and rebounder, but isn’t actually mobile enough as a defender (or finisher) to anchor a team with this kind of wing personnel.
Last season, that led to (too) much defensive responsibility for Durant, the only other really big player in the core rotation… which caught up with him in the playoffs when he was never able to really take over a game in the sweep against the Timberwolves. The squad isn’t actually much bigger. It will be exciting to see how Budenholzer, who has an excellent reputation especially defensively, will manage this issue and Durant’s workload in particular.
It won’t be easy – which is why Ishbia’s claim in May that 26 of 29 GMs from the other teams would immediately swap their teams for the Suns’ was, of course, stupid. However, the idea that Phoenix will be somewhere in the upper echelons of the West next season cannot be completely written off.
Phoenix Suns: Die Preseason
Phoenix Suns: A few solid straws
Last season was anything but ideal – in the end, the Suns were still only two wins away from home advantage in round one. When Beal, Booker and Durant were on the court together, the net rating was +6.6, without the puller that Jones could now be. And despite Beal’s struggles, he never really found his feet in the new environment and recorded his lowest points total since 2016 (18.2 per game).
KD and Booker recently showed with Team USA that they are still top 15 players in the league, at least. Their fit is not perfect because they are too similar in some respects, but these two stars can still form a good foundation. Their supporting cast isn’t ideal, but it’s probably better than last year. Not every potential playoff opponent would be as physically superior to them as the Wolves were in 2024.
Does this all sound a bit like the infamous grasping at straws? Certainly – but the Suns don’t have any other choice at the moment anyway. In this case, at least they are solid straws. The Suns won’t get the future back for the time being, but maybe they can at least get something worthwhile out of the present.
