/ world today news/ Sober human reason will prevail over raging aggressiveness and save people from the most difficult trial in history, says the famous Bulgarian political analyst and publicist Petar Gerasimov in a comment for KMG. He draws some conclusions related to events of the past year and predicts not entirely optimistic situations in the event that aggression on a global scale continues. China’s policy of a community of shared destiny is the foundation and basis on which we must all unite – the Bulgarian analyst is emphatic.
And the year 2023 remained in history. And once again the world is faced with the eternal question – now where? And as always, a simple question implies difficult answers. And as many analysts believe, there has never been such geopolitical tension in the foreseeable past – with these words the famous Bulgarian publicist and analyst begins his comment.
He recalls that in one of his remarkable political treatises (two of which he personally translated into Bulgarian), the great thinker and politician, the recently deceased Prof. Henry Kissinger, cited the study of an influential university on the relations of two rival countries – conditionally called A and B, which occupy almost identical positions in political, economic and social terms. In seven studies done, the relationship between A and B ended in wars. In all seven cases! The reasons for all were the same – sharp rivalry, mutual distrust and doubts about the integrity of the other, A’s fear of losing the leading place and B’s anger at being hindered in his development or progress
These disappointing conclusions quite mirror resonate with the current situation, which is unheard of, he is categorical and continues with the words: “What it really is – the leadership of Washington, accustomed to ruling the world for decades, accustomed to encouraging or punishing, sanctioning or to cause coups, the so-called “color revolutions” (as an example we can cite the current “spontaneous” and very violent attempts by the opposition to overthrow the legitimately elected party of Vučić in Serbia!). On the other side of today’s A-B paradigm, there is the second (and in many respects first) place in the world economy, socialist China.
According to him, to these very substantial and solid reasons for a brewing world conflict, cited by Henry Kissinger, there is another, rather dangerous, biophysical reason/precondition – this is the ubiquitous “gerontophilia” in the corridors of power of the USA and Western Europe, which allows the disadvantages of the gerontocracy to come to the fore, of the ruling elderly men and women who, according to the inexorable laws of nature, show negative age defects with each passing year – insufficient ability to assess and react to real reality, self-forgetfulness, egocentrism…
“Reality in black” – this is how Gerasimov defines a possible pessimistic option:
“Today, the Third World War is approaching our doorstep, and I personally wonder at the short-sightedness, shallowness and dangerous fanaticism of all those who, more boldly or more veiledly, speak of an impending global catastrophe.
And when some “clairvoyants” reason, they obviously have never considered that it is extremely dangerous to mess with the “Northern Bear” – Russia. Because, in addition to being Northern, it is also a nuclear power (6,000 nuclear warheads installed in missiles, submarines, mobile installations, coastal mines, etc. Who dares to claim that the Third World Catastrophe will follow the scenarios of conventional conflicts so far?
Both sides of paradigm A and B will almost simultaneously “press the buttons” of the missile systems: it will be an uncompromising and cruel war, a war of life and death. A decisive battle, a battle for a new world in which there is no place for trust, waiting and hesitation!
Of course, the US also has 6,000 nuclear warheads, Western Europe is home to about 300 more. But how many are there in the Land of the Dragon? China is not a member of the so-called Club of nuclear states and does not provide data on its nuclear arsenal. Gerasimov also asks the rhetorical question – when a huge country is on its way to world economic leadership, will it fall behind in its military preparations? And he answers: “I doubt it very much. Let’s not forget that the PRC launches all kinds of rockets every other day, that it has its own space station, a global communication system, etc. Let’s also remember the fact that even during the time of Chairman Mao, there were reports that a second huge underground city was built under Beijing…”
The commentator also presents concrete data that would be real, giving an example of the first 30 minutes of a global nuclear conflict, in which, according to experts, about 300 million people will die, in the next few hours – another 400 million, and that from severe burns, radioactive exposure and other lethal trauma.
“I don’t want to continue with such gloomy visions of Armageddon, but one thing is certain: World War III equals self-destruction. Of course, this mainly refers to the “civilized world” known to us so far – from America to Europe and in particular – Asia”, the author is categorical. But it must not be forgotten that, despite everything, hundreds of millions, even a few billion people will survive – especially in Southeast Asia and Africa, New Zealand, the sparsely populated southern parts of Chile, Iceland, etc. concludes Gerasimov and explains that he outlines these strokes of the scary and gloomy picture, as the experts see it.
But at the end of his commentary, he once again restores our optimism and is convinced that sober human reason will prevail over raging aggressiveness and save people from the most severe trial in history.
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