Pessimism spreads, and pig prices return to a year ago!In the industry: the progress of the second yu slaughter has passed halfway|Industry dynamics
Financial Associated Press, December 19 (Reporters Wang Pingan and Zhang Chenjing)In the peak breeding season, there was an unexpected decline. In just two months, the profit of the pig farming industry fell by 80 percent from the average profit of more than 1,000 yuan. Financial Associated Press reporters learned from various interviews that the price of hogs is not well realized during the peak consumption season and the digestion of large hogs by farmers and secondary fatteners is slow. pork prices. In addition, fattening families have a positive attitude towards slaughter: according to Mysteel data, most of the second farm completed more than half of the slaughter and 80%-85% completed better.
The decline in pig prices accelerated over the two-day weekend and the price of pigs returned to the level of a year ago. According to data from Zhuyi, the average standard weight live pig price was 17.42 yuan/kg as of December 18, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous day and an increase of 1.27 yuan/kg compared to 16.15 yuan / kg of the same period in 2021, an increase of 7.86%. In futures terms, the main contract 2303 fell sharply for several consecutive days last week and continued to fall today. As of press time, 2303 is down more than 2% and 2301 is down more than 7%. .
(Data source: Zhuyi data) Zeng Zihua, chief analyst at Zhuyi.com, told a Financial Associated Press reporter, “The main reason for the recent sharp decline in hog prices is the short-term supply-demand mismatch. On December 18, the price of pigs in slaughterhouses fell significantly. Some enterprises experienced a second price reduction. The price of white stripes in Beijing and Shanghai wholesale markets showed a decline, the market transaction performance was average and the strength of the receipt of goods was average.”
In terms of policy, the National Development and Reform Commission has previously said it will release the government’s pork reserves in due course and increase the release during important periods such as the “two festivals”. At the same time, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the week of December 5 to 9, the average weekly retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by less than 30%. year- year-on-year, exiting the alert band for excessive price increases.
Towards the end of the year, the slaughter rate of the group’s farms increased, retail investors abolished early-stage slaughter and the second source of breeding pigs focused on the market, but consumption continues to be slow, which is the main reason for the unexpected drop in pig prices.
Zheng Lili, general manager of Yongyi Consulting, told a Financial Associated Press reporter that the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs in the market increased last week, and large enterprises accelerated their slaughter, which lowered the average slaughter weight within the week. However, demand is not good and slaughterhouses are less willing to accept, and there are more plans to cancel subscriptions at noon, which limits the rapid price turnaround and swings lower in the latter part of the week. The market sentiment has changed rapidly, and with the gradual decline in meat prices, consumption may be stimulated, which will support a rapid rebound in prices. However, at this stage, many places are gradually coming to an end, and the rate of Overall domestic consumption growth is slow.
A number of frontline people said over the weekend: “The market panicked over the weekend, and second education and pigs were trampled.” Some farmers said, “I can’t take it anymore. If I want to sell it, I’ll pay for it if I lose money.”
It is worth mentioning that with regard to the progress of the second fattening and slaughtering, Zhu Yuzhen, a live pig analyst at the Shanghai Steel Union’s agricultural products division, said in an interview with a Financial Associated Press reporter that the progress of the according to the fattening and slaughtering of different regions is currently very different, but due to this month’s pig price The cliff-like decline, the slaughtering aptitude of fattening households has increased compared to the previous period. According to market statistics, about 40%-80% of secondary breeding is completed in various regions of the country, and more than half of the secondary breeding is completed and 80%-85% is better.
The “two festivals” are approaching and the market demand may increase to some extent. Zhu Yuzhen further said that the main reason for the pig price reduction this time is that supply exceeds demand, large-scale farms have lost slaughter weight, and retail farmers have continued to sell pigs for fattening. from the previous year. At present, the supply is focused on slaughter, and some pigs will be slaughtered earlier than expected next month, and the pickling in the south has not finished yet. For example, due to the climate in Jiangxi, the pickling of residents just started last week, and residents will stock up before the end of the year. There is some positive support from consumers. There is still a chance for hog prices to rebound.
(Editor Liu Yan)
