Peso remains pressured by the dollar; pay attention to BdeM minutes

Mexico City. The Mexican peso extends its losses against the dollar this Thursday, in what could be its fourth downward session against the US currency, amid the data on the US consumer price index (CPI) that fell one tenth in September, up to 2.4 percent year-on-year, and where the consensus expected 2.3 percent.

Although it is the lowest US inflation figure since February 2021, and is known after the first reduction in interest rates announced by the Federal Reserve (Fed) three weeks ago, the process of slowing price increases maintains its slow pace. .

At the opening of the American markets, the Mexican currency shows a depreciation of 0.47 percent against the dollar, to operate at around 19.5832 pesos per dollar.

While waiting for the publication of the minutes of the Bank of Mexico of its latest monetary policy decision and in which it lowered the reference rate by 0.25 percentage points; In addition, the Mexican Congress approved that Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) once again become companies oriented to public service.

While traders increase bets for a federal funds rate cut in the United States of 0.25 percentage points in November, the dollar shows some exhaustion, trading with a slight drop of 0.06 percent, to 102.637 points.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner, consumer prices increased two tenths in September compared to August, the same increase recorded in the previous two months.

The housing index increased 0.2 percent in September (4.9 percent year-over-year) and the food index increased 0.4 percent (2.3 percent year-over-year). Together these two indices contributed more than 75 percent of the monthly price increase of all items.

The energy index fell 1.9 percent during September and in the last 12 months it has decreased 6.8 percent.

Core inflation, which strips out the most volatile components such as fresh food, energy goods and services, rose 0.3 percent in September. This is one of the indicators that the Fed observes most closely when making its monetary policy decisions and in year-on-year terms it increased 3.3 percent.

Meanwhile, initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States were 258 thousand, where 230 thousand were expected and the previous data was 225 thousand.

Oil and stocks

The escalation of war in the Middle East sent the price of oil up more than 10 percent in just over a week. Despite the latest cuts, a barrel of Brent is trading today at $77.72, a gain of 1.63 percent, with investors also attentive to the effects of the hurricanes on the United States oil industry. The West Texas barrel is trading at $74.34 and is gaining 1.46 percent this morning.

The emerging inflationary pressures on energy prices have been transferred, in the form of notable increases, to debt interests. The required yield on the 10-year US bond has strengthened above the 4 percent barrier, and this morning it is trading at 4,079 percent.

Wall Street starts in negative territory, waiting for the beginning of the financial reporting season that begins tomorrow with the first, in its tradition, the banks.

The Nasdaq fell 0.30 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 0.26 percent and the Dow Jones fell 0.20 percent.

For its part, the Mexican Stock Exchange breaks away from Wall Street and advances 0.83 percent, to 52,301 points.