“Permian Basin Shale Oil Production to Increase by 40% by 2030, but Slow Growth Will Not Solve Global Oil Crisis”

I expected Bloomberg agency To increase production in the largest basin of shale oil in the United States by 40 percent, by 2030, but this increase will be slow and will not help to overcome the problems of oil in the coming years.

According to a Bloomberg survey of four companies, i.e. Dubai Global, Rystad Energy, Wood Mackenzie, and Enviras, production in the Permian Basin, located in West Texas and New Mexico, is expected to increase by 40 percent in seven years, until it reaches its peak. by 7.86 million barrels per day in 2030.

On average, the Permian will add 2.4 million barrels of daily production by then, a number roughly equal to Iran’s total oil production.

However, it seems that this growth will be slow, and OPEC Plus will remain in control of the global oil market for the time being, according to the agency.

While the increase in production will be greater than that of all OPEC countries except Saudi Arabia, expectations indicate slow growth for reasons including the pace of expansion. There is no significant increase expected this year or next, so the Permian basin will not help much in mitigating the The world’s current problems with inflation resulting from energy prices.

Producers have little incentive to ramp up production quickly, and there is a shortage of “everything from labor to pipes and drilling equipment”.

And while President Joe Biden has appealed to manufacturers to increase production, his agenda also includes combating climate change, which means that the political vision for shale oil is uncertain.

Raoul LeBlanc, of S&P Global, said that companies want to reduce capital spending on new wells in favor of increasing returns for shareholders, and therefore accelerating production with a shortage of labor and equipment will be difficult and reduce the profitability of these companies.

It is worth noting that in April, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Algeria decided in a coordinated manner to reduce their daily production by a total of more than one million barrels per day, starting from next May until the end of this year, in the largest production cut since the decision of the “OPEC Plus” alliance in October 2022 to reduce production by two million. barrels per day.

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, settled above $85 a barrel in April after the unexpected OPEC+ decision.