The UK government likes to say that Vladimir Putin must “lose” the war against Ukraine. And everyone should consider him a loser. But if the Russian president is faced with a choice between a humiliating defeat that will put his regime’s survival in jeopardy or a subsequent escalation, he may choose to intensify the bloodshed.
It is a significant risk to corner an isolated leader who values strength above all else. Especially if one recalls Putin’s gloomy allusions to the nuclear arsenal – writes The Telegraph. Ukraine and the West may well have to build a “golden ladder” for him to help him descend into the world.
Putin will not accept a public defeat. So he needs to be given something that he can present as a victory. He must lose, but he must not appear to have lost. At least not in Russia. But without a ceasefire, there can be no agreements on this. And any peace agreement must be coordinated and supported by Ukraine.
There should be no feeling that the Ukrainian future is determined by “foreign states such as the United States.” This will only allow Putin to blame Volodymyr Zelensky for being a puppet of the West. The publication recalls that there was information about a number of Russian attempts to kill Zelensky. So the Ukrainian president needs to stay safe if a peace deal has any chance.
The longer the fierce Ukrainian resistance keeps the Russian invaders at bay, the more influence the Ukrainian leader will have in the painful and difficult negotiations with Moscow.
Fig leaf for Putin
Zelenskiy hinted that the outlook for peace improved over the weekend. Ukrainian and Russian officials began to exchange “concrete proposals.” At the same time, Zelensky called on Putin to meet with him personally in Jerusalem for peace talks. What can Ukraine offer Russia as a fig leaf for its president?
One justification for the Russian invasion was the eastward expansion of NATO. Kyiv can promise to remain neutral, like Austria did in 1955, giving up its prospects of joining the alliance, whatever that may be. Ukraine has also applied for EU membership. This ambition is harder to sacrifice because Ukrainians have died trying to achieve it.
Other neutral countries such as Finland, Sweden and Austria are part of the EU. But getting membership is a complicated and very technical process that some governments don’t want to speed up for Ukraine. The publication proposes to find a trick that would strengthen the economic relations of Kyiv with the EU without immediately granting full membership, while continuing to talk about supporting Ukrainian European ambitions.
Ukraine could join the European Economic Area, which includes countries such as Norway and Iceland. They do not have EU membership but enjoy full access to the common market. The issue of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk, which Russia occupied in 2014, will remain a big problem. Moscow says recognizing the peninsula as part of the Russian Federation, as well as granting autonomous status to occupied areas in Donbass, could help end the war. But it would cost Zelensky too much. Besides, Russian puppets would gain so much influence over Ukrainian politics.
Even if the issue of Crimea could be at least temporarily resolved, a complete rejection of the entire territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions would be too much. However, it is possible to persuade Russia to agree to a compromise solution, which could potentially include the introduction of international peacekeepers. The event could suggest lifting certain sanctions to encourage Moscow to abide by the peace deal.
The lifting of unprecedented restrictions should be dosed and closely tied to the implementation of agreements by Moscow. The risk that Putin may decide on a new invasion will remain. The pressure is not so easy to cancel. But there were precedents when sanctions against Iran after the signing of an agreement on the nuclear program were gradually eased for good behavior. It is quite possible that crude and unsatisfactory compromises will have to be made to achieve a peace that Putin does not deserve, but Ukraine needs.
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