Despite the fact that analysts consulted by Expansión considered that there will be a significant recovery in economic activity from the second half of 2021, reaching the prepandemic levels in payroll and personal credit will take a few more months.
“We are seeing a recovery in GDP, not so much at the levels of 2019, but it is difficult for us to see the same levels of credit placement prior to the pandemic, rather, I see that these levels could reach by 2022”, said Ángel García, an analyst at the credit risk rating agency HR Ratings.
Until April 2021, payroll credits They barely amounted to 258,644 million pesos, 5,512 million pesos less than at the beginning of the pandemic. BBVA México is the bank with the most loans granted, with 97,983 million pesos.
In the personal credits, the outlook does not look better: in February 2020, the month prior to the declaration of the pandemic, the portfolio already presented a contraction of 2.4% at an annual rate and at the end of 2020 the portfolio was 174,053 million pesos.
Last April, this type of financing totaled 167,803 million pesos, which means that there are 42,499 million pesos less placed than at the beginning of the pandemic.
García, from HR Ratings, stressed that it will be from May when contractions will be lessened due to the reopening of economic activities. And it is that achieving a recovery of payroll credit will depend on a gear that includes the recovery of economic activity, vaccination, investment and the creation of formal jobs.
The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) announced that from January to May 335,712 formal jobs registered with the Institute have been created, but that there are still 504,092 jobs to reach pre-pandemic levels.
Formal employment, which is key for the placement of payroll loans, must be accompanied by confidence on the part of the borrowers and the investment.
Jorge Sánchez Tello, from the Foundation for Financial Studies (Fundef)He stressed that as there is no reactivation in investment, there will be no demand from the companies that are the ones that employ potential borrowers. “If companies invest more, they will demand more credit and if investment contracts, there is less credit,” he added.
The banks have said that the worst is over and that there is a turning point in the recovery of credit.
“In recent months we have begun to see a sequential recovery, that is, month by month, and we began to see that the consumer portfolio, with the reopening and reactivation, has a sequential recovery,” highlighted Alejandro González, an analyst at Inetercam.
The Mexican Association of Banks (ABM) highlighted in its most recent conference that after the crisis caused by COVID-19 there were a large number of refinanced loans, so there will be fewer potential clients.
“After a crisis like the one we have just experienced and with many loans that were refinanced, clearly there are borrowers who are not creditworthy today, because they had bureau problems or have a level of leverage that is not in line with their income. it’s natural after an economic crisis, ”he said Eduardo Osuna, CEO of BBVA México and vice president of ABM.
The manager also said that the banks are working with Banco de México on a loan program associated with payroll.
“Payroll credit has a high component of risk premiums and the first thing to do is work to reduce these risk premiums,” said Osuna.
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