Pastukhov: “Ordinary people” believe that the ongoing war with Ukraine can delay the devastating Russian unrest

Recently, I have been increasingly asked the question about the paradoxical reaction of the Russian population to the war, writes political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov.

Why is the prolongation of the conflict, the increase in the number of victims and the steady, although not as fast as expected, deterioration of the socio-economic situation leading not to an increase in protest moods, but to consolidation around the idea that “once we started, we must finish”, that is, we must fight to the bitter end. The answer to this paradox, in my opinion, is as paradoxical as it is. The deepest reason why the “secondary consolidation” of the war party is taking place today is fear hidden in the subconscious. This fear is of two kinds: fear of others and fear of oneself.

When people talk about the “new military consensus,” they pay little attention to the fact that, with the exception of a small group of fanatics (propagandists do not count – that’s their job), few people approve of the war in retrospect. That is, the approach is basically this: of course, the war was a mistake, but now it’s too late to talk about it. What does this remind me of? First of all, thieves’ logic. This is how fraera become mosquitoes. They came to rob in a quick way, and there the whole family, and even with the guests. They didn’t want to kill anyone, they only needed a wallet, but they had to get rid of witnesses. So it happened. This is the logic of moving from a lesser evil to a greater one out of fear of retribution for an already committed crime. This is the logic of collective irresponsibility.

But there is something else. What the intellectually advanced representatives of the elites that surfaced in the historical off-season cannot see in any way, the “ordinary people” know and understand very clearly about themselves: they inwardly feel the civil war of all against all going on in society and are afraid to be left alone with it. He believes that the ongoing war with Ukraine may delay the devastating Russian turmoil, and defeat in this war will make it all but inevitable. In this sense, the consolidation we are seeing is the logic of survival in anticipation of a civil war.

From the foregoing, I conclude that today’s massive support for the war in Russia is a non-linear phenomenon that requires a correct interpretation. It is not so much a manifestation of the aggressiveness of the “Russian spirit” as a consequence of his cowardice, a derivative of fear of the future and an attempt to postpone “until later” the onset of the denouement, which the subconscious is already beginning to perceive as inevitable. And if so, then the change of political magnetic poles at a certain moment will happen almost instantly. There will be no transition period. When the hope for “collective salvation” in victory disappears, all at once become deserters and begin to seek individual salvation in defeat.