Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, said that Taiwan stocks fell for two consecutive days and fell below the million, but TSMC was deducted (2330-TW), the market has actually not fallen, which means that other stocks will rise, and the market will continue to rise in rounds.
Some people worry that TSMC’s decline will undermine the long-term market in Taiwan stocks, I think they are overly worried. The major international stock markets do not have TSMC, and there is no reason for Taiwan stocks to fall alone. Moreover, Intel said that it will not adopt a fabless model, and most of its products will still be produced in-house, which will have limited impact on TSMC.
TSMC is not short of orders at all. There are many customers who are queuing for production capacity. Now the production capacity is so short that even the official high-level officials in Germany and the United States can ask for help. Intel already has orders, and adding more points will add points. It will be harmless if TSMC is not added.
Imagine that the order of TSMC’s major customer, HiSilicon, was reset to zero last year. It would be difficult for TSMC to hit TSMC, not to mention Intel, whose decision-making vacillated. Whoever needs the more, the stock price will speak. Last Friday, Intel fell 9.29% because of its unwillingness to expand outsourcing. On the same day, TSMC’s ADR fell only 3.7%.
Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, pointed out that the biggest negative for TSMC is the long rise. It takes time to digest the profit and selling pressure before the Chinese New Year. It is not a bad thing for TSMC to shut down. Funds flow to the individual stocks that have been sorted, and domestic capital has more opportunities to make money. For example, this wave of raw materials, container ships and biotech epidemic prevention stocks that have fallen deep have seen low-end buying orders since last week, and it is estimated that there will be at least a wave of rebound.
The price-increasing electronics groups such as passive components, memory, panels, etc. have also been sorted out for some time. There is a chance that they will rise before and after the Chinese New Year.2327-TW) Today, the stock price hit a new high in the band, reflecting the price increase effect of passive components.
Wang Chuan, the world’s third largest resistor manufacturer () Will increase prices by as much as 15% after the year. Coincidentally, Japanese electronics manufacturer KOA also announced an increase in its financial forecast targets, implying optimism about market conditions. Last year I was optimistic about the aluminum capacitor manufacturer Kaimei (), this year merged into Wang Quan, just in time to catch the resistance price increase, the stock price rose again.
The domestic resistance market accounted for the highest 30% of Yageo, followed by Huaxin Technology () And Dayi (). Since last year, Huaxinke’s growth rate has lagged far behind Yageo. The recent Chinese factory fire has a slight impact on the production line, and it should be time to respond to product price increases.
Another niche product of Huaxinke is LTCC, which has been in short supply at the end of last year. If MLCC rises later, Huaxinke will benefit more. Since the high-capacity MLCC began in the third quarter of 2020, it was reported that the utilization rate of daily factories was full, and now even the low- and medium-capacity products are also experiencing tight supply. Yageo notified Chinese agents last week that some specifications of MLCC will enter the distribution Status, the current utilization rate of MLCC is close to 90%, and the specific resistance is still high. It is estimated that the price of MLCC will increase.
In addition to the benefits of Yageo, Huaxinke’s MLCC revenue accounted for 54%, and the global market accounted for 14%, ranking fourth, higher than Yageo’s 11%. If MLCC prices rise smoothly, Huaxinke will benefit more than Yageo. It is estimated that the EPS of Yageo and Huaxinke in 2021 will be RMB 38~42 and RMB 18~20, respectively, and their PE ratios are 15 times and 12 times, which are much lower than 30 times of TSMC.
Another thing to note is the panel, AUO () And Innolux () This wave pulls back up to 20% of the spread, the price-to-earnings ratio is low, and there is more room for upwards than downwards in the future.
Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, said that the panel inventory replenishment, coupled with the increase in the price of glass substrates, driver ICs, polarizers and other materials, has led to the continuous increase in panel quotations in January. At present, TV manufacturers are worried that the inventory in hand is too low and hope that the panel The factory does not stop during the Chinese New Year. Panel prices are still bullish in February, and the stocking force continues into the third quarter. It is estimated that AUO and Innolux will challenge the strength of 1.6 yuan EPS in 2021. The current P/E ratio is less than 10 times, and the stock price is also lower than the net value. , Really wronged.
Niche DRAM spot prices are rumored to rise by 20%. The spot price is higher than the contract price and reaches 40%. It can be seen that the current shortage of supply is serious, which is beneficial to Winbond () Nor Flash quotes continue to increase in the first quarter of 2021. In addition to Winbond, Macronix () Is also one of the beneficiaries.
The contract price of standard DRAM has not yet entered the market, and the spot price has soared by 20% last month.) Will eventually benefit from standard price increases. The longer this wave of stock prices is depressed, the greater the explosive power in the future. The stock prices of Micron and Hynix have reached a new high in 20 years, and the price comparison space of Nanya Kobe is increasing.
In addition, the module factories ADATA () and Team Group () have a large amount of relatively low-priced inventory, and the market outlook is also worth paying attention to. Due to space limitations, there are more potential stock analysis, which will be shared with readers in the LINE fan club. Welcome to join for free.
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