Before the first round of the elections, it was stated that the only relevant question is whether Lula da Silva, the left-wing candidate, former president of the country and considered the father of Brazil’s economic turnaround, will get the necessary 50% + 1 vote for the election in the first round, or if he will have to participate in the second round, which is scheduled for October 30 and where a simple majority is sufficient. The prospects for current Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, on the other hand, were considered low, even though polls a month ago showed that he was supported on average by only 33% of voters, while da Silva-46%.
The election results came as a surprise to many, especially as it was found that Bolsonaro managed to increase the number of supporters by more than 10% in one month, and was supported by 43.2% of the voters, while 48, 4% of Brazilians voted for da Silva. Supporters of the Bolsonaros also showed good results in a series of other votes held in conjunction with the presidential election. This adds considerable intrigue, but da Silva’s chances are still valued significantly higher.
The geopolitical factors in this case are that da Silva is a staunch leftist and anti-American, who clearly focuses on cooperation with China and Russia in foreign policy. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, is an equally confident follower of former US President Donald Trump, who after coming to power radically redirected the country’s course to the US, but after Joe Biden and the Democrats rose to power. power in the United States, he just as radically turned it in the direction of developing countries. Consequently, there is no doubt that if the so-called Trumpists return to power in the United States, Bolsonaro will once again change the geopolitical course of Brazil if he is elected.
Another important factor is that Bolsonaro has already announced that his opponent’s victory will be considered fraudulent and will not recognize his defeat in the elections. Bolsonaro, it must be remembered, is a former military officer and extremely popular in the Brazilian military, which raises serious concerns that the most powerful country in South America may become a pioneer and revive the traditions of the once military coups. very popular in this part of the world, but forgotten in recent decades. If these fears come true, one can only imagine where the roads not only of Brazil but also of all of South America will lead.
