Even the betting companies have been forced to revise their predictions. At the beginning of the race for the leadership of PaSoK, they showed Haris Doukas as their favorite, then they changed their mind and bet on Nikos Androulakis, then they reconsidered and for the next 15 days we will see.
The inconsistency of the match has been recorded in all the series of polls that have seen the light of day. Nikos Androulakis and Haris Doukas appear as the dominant duo for the second round but they feel, in some measurements at the limits of statistical error, the threat of Anna Diamantopoulos while they wonder what the electoral limits of Pavlos Geroulanos are after all. The ones recorded by the polls or the ones they themselves smell in their contact with the base of PaSoK?
The two keys to the match
Candidate staffs do their own counting. They put all participation scenarios under the microscope to get a full picture of the dynamics that each candidacy can have. They are looking for their appeal within and outside the boundaries of the PSOC. The battle for the leadership of PaSoK in the first decisive round will be decided by two factors.
The first is the appeal of the candidates to the narrow electoral base of PaSoK. Here the imprint of Nikos Androulakis is strong, but the impact recorded by Haris Doukas is not at all negligible. The presence of Pavlos Geroulanos is also strong. Anna Diamantopoulou seems to be lagging behind in this electorate. The second is the influx that will occur from citizens who did not vote for PaSoK in the elections. Anna Diamantopoulou takes the lion’s share of the audience that will come from the center.
In the most left-leaning audiences, Haris Doukas leads with Pavlos Geroulanos taking a notable part of them. Here lies a difficulty and a challenge for Nikos Androulakis. To increase the degree of trust in his person by the voters who in the previous elections did not vote for PASOK but seem willing to attend his internal party process. The bottom line is that size (how many) as well as composition (who) will determine who the second round duo will be.
The geographic battle
An interesting element is the… geographical appeal of the candidates. Nikos Androulakis has a strong presence in the region. Crete, Xanthi, Northern Aegean are his strongest cards. The percentages of Mr. Androulakis are moving, throughout the region, at percentages above 20%. In Crete, despite the losses, it is likely to record a percentage more than double the second. It can, in this way, “refer” the lag in the urban centers.
Pavlos Geroulanos and Anna Diamantopoulou register remarkable percentages in the urban centers, in Athens and in Thessaloniki. Pavlos Geroulanos in Kefalonia and Anna Diamantopoulou in the region of Western Macedonia also record high percentages in their respective homelands. In the urban centers, the presence of Haris Doukas (Athens, North Piraeus) is also significant, while in the Western Sector of Athens, Nadia Gianakopoulou registers a strong presence.
The individual elements
Who is the candidate with the least dislikes and the most likes in PaSoK? Pavlos Geroulanos. Who is considered the person who can unite the Center Left? Harry Doukas. Who is closer to the citizen? Androulakis and Katrinis. Who has prime ministerial aura? Anna Diamantopoulou. Which presidential candidate voters show the most confidence to vote? By Nikos Androulakis. How many want a change in leadership? Most of them.
Does all this mean anything? It depends on the voting criteria. In any case, all the evidence suggests that the elections in PaSoK will be, as we usually say, a battle that will be decided by the thread.
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