What do betting companies know from internal party elections? How can one predict the winner of a contest with an unknown electorate that will take part in the process?
The truth is that this electoral contest in PaSoK is more unpredictable than the previous ones. And just the fact that 4 of the 7 candidates appear to claim entry into the final matchup of the second round, is indicative of the difficult equation of the elections and the precariousness of every prediction made.
Summer predictions
In the last few days, the discussion about the internal party elections of the PASoK has focused on the odds given by the betting companies. Based on the odds of two betting companies (Novibet and Stoiximan) two clear favorites are recorded.
First comes the mayor of Athens with 1.90 and 1.95 and is followed by the current president of the Movement with 2.50 and 2.60. Both companies point to Anna Diamantopoulou in third place with 5.00, followed by Pavlos Geroulanos at a short distance. Michalis Katrinis has a performance of 17.00 and Nadia Giannakopoulou 31.00 and 30.00.
In relation to the returns of the same companies, there have been no shocking changes in the previous period. Nikos Androulakis and Haris Doukas appear as the dominant ones for the duel of the second round. Both, however, appear to be losing some of their momentum.
Anna Diamantopoulou’s entry into the race for leadership seems to take away strength from both. The increase in the dynamics of the candidacy of Pavlos Geroulanos is also noteworthy. The member of parliament from Athens does not seem to be the candidate that will simply determine the result but creates conditions for “claiming the above”.
The party metrics
In addition to the predictions of the betting companies, there are also the measurements carried out by the candidates’ staffs. These measurements are made, according to information, in an open but also in a more closed electorate, which is likely to reach the ballot box. The results generally give them the following picture.
Nikos Androulakis comes first in the so-called “small electorate” and remains first but with a smaller margin than the second as the electorate expands. Haris Doukas follows while a battle is fought between Anna Diamantopoulou and Pavlos Geroulanos.
That’s why the predictions for the duo of the second round give and take. The estimates of experienced officials, who believe that in the process on October 6 there will be a participation similar to that of the 2021 elections (280 thousand), see Nikos Androulakis and Haris Doukas as the most likely duo of the second round. However, there are executives who broadcast “how the scene in the fall will be different” and do not rule out Geroulanos’ surprise.
What is surprising is that the candidacy of Anna Diamantopoulou seems to lack momentum, which has led to a shuffling of the party deck but still has not shown that it has the momentum to claim the leadership.
The black holes of candidates
For the time being, the candidates for the leadership of PaSoK will slow down, conserving strength for the final stretch of the race that will begin in September. Then the confrontation between them is expected to begin, which is expected to be signaled by raising the tone of criticism. During this short summer break, the candidates take stock of their campaign and look for ways to increase their base in the electoral base and cover the “black holes” of their candidacy.
Nikos Androulakis has to face two challenges in the next critical period.
The first concerns strengthening his leadership profile in order to entertain the criticism that he cannot lead PaSoK to victory against the ND of Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The president of PaSoK, despite the losses, keeps unscathed the hard core of his supporters throughout the country. He does not have the power of the previous matchup and the assessment that exists is that his electoral base is now moving in the sphere of the 55 thousand votes received by his close associate and secretary of PaSoK, Andreas Spyropoulos, in the European elections.
The electoral black holes of Mr. Androulakis are found in Attica and Thessaloniki. It will take a lot of effort to increase its percentage and compensate for the losses it will have in areas where it maintains a strong lead such as in Crete and Thrace.
In contrast to the president of PaSoK, the mayor of Athens, Haris Doukas, seems to be doing well in Lekanopedio, from which the large volume of voters in the intra-party contest is expected to come. But he will need to increase his influence in the region and especially in Macedonia and Crete to “equalize” the advantage of Mr. Androulakis.
In Crete and Attica (where she has strength), Anna Diamantopoulou is expected to throw her weight, who is looking forward to a good presence in Macedonia. The question is what impact the candidacy of the former minister can have among the ranks of PaSoK voters who voted for it in the difficult years when she chose to withdraw from party life.
Pavlos Geroulanos is trying to strengthen his forces outside the Basin, which seems to be gaining ground in several regions of the country. Much will be judged by the percentage they record in critical areas, such as Lekanopedio, Michalis Katrinis and Nadia Giannakopoulou.
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