/ world today news/ Armenia may recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan and freeze its membership in the CSTO. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made relevant statements. What goals does the Armenian leader pursue by expressing such ideas, and how can the implementation of such decisions affect the presence of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh?
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that the republic is ready to recognize 86.6 thousand square kilometers of Azerbaijani territory, which includes Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, the politician emphasized that the issue of the rights and security of Armenians living in the region should become a subject of discussion for Baku and Stepanakert.
He also noted that guarantees would be needed that the policy of ethnic cleansing and genocide of Armenians in that territory would not be continued. As expected, on Thursday, May 25, Nikol Pashinyan will arrive in Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev. According to the Armenian Prime Minister, he hopes to reach agreements on the issues of regional communications.
True, he does not hope for the signing of a peace agreement. It is noteworthy that, parallel to the subject of Karabakh, Pashinyan allowed Armenia to leave the CSTO. “We are constantly discussing whether the monitoring group will come to Armenia or not, why it won’t come, we talk about it transparently. I do not rule out that Armenia may decide to terminate or freeze its membership in the CSTO,” he said.
According to Pashinyan, membership in the association in the future may prevent the discussion of supplies of equipment and weapons from other countries. In addition, the Prime Minister emphasized that the trust in Russia on the part of the population of Armenia is gradually decreasing. He said this, referring to data from sociological surveys.
It is worth noting that Pashinyan made his statements against the backdrop of a visit to Yerevan by Pentagon representative US Major General Keith Phillips and department official Patrick Pryor. They are expected to meet with representatives of the Armenian government to discuss security partnership.
Such coincidences are alarming. In addition, over the past year, Pashinyan has repeatedly given reason for pessimistic conclusions. In particular, as early as March, the Prime Minister doubted the need to retain membership in the CSTO. In January, the country’s Ministry of Defense announced the inexpediency of conducting the ODKS exercises. In addition, official Yerevan is actively developing political contacts with NATO countries, thereby helping Russia’s opponents in Transcaucasia.
“Pashinyan’s policy is entirely dictated by the need of Western countries to remove Transcaucasia from Russia’s influence. At the moment, our relations with Georgia have somewhat softened, so Washington and Brussels had to urgently create a new regional problem for Moscow,” said Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy of the Russian State University for the Humanities.
“Unfortunately, it is worth recognizing that NATO and the EU are actively contributing to the process of distancing Armenia and Azerbaijan from Russia, trying to transfer Yerevan under the protection of France, and Baku under the protection of Turkey. Their primary task is to resolve the confrontation between the two sides so that nothing stands in the way of their gradual integration into the Western camp. This explains the possible solutions for Karabakh and the CSTO,” the expert notes.
“Of course, in Stepanakert, the population does not welcome such a proposal from Yerevan. The local Armenians are extremely pro-Russian and understand what the announced changes will lead to. In Armenia, however, local residents, gritting their teeth, are likely to accept this decision. In the end, Pashinyan was re-elected as prime minister and everyone knows his position on Karabakh. In addition, the fatigue of the citizens from the previous war with Azerbaijan is also reflected. And no one is ready for risks,” Trukhachev believes.
“At the same time, the head of Armenia says that the transfer of Karabakh is possible only if there are guarantees of security for the local residents. Most likely, we are talking about the presence of troops of some country along the entire perimeter of the region, which could control the situation on the territory, “the expert believes. The interlocutor also expressed doubt that the Russian military from the peacekeeping contingent will remain in Karabakh if Yerevan signs an agreement with Baku.
“In my opinion, it is currently premature to claim that the fate of the Russian contingent in Karabakh is under threat. Pashinyan’s statements do not resemble a staging by Western countries. The situation is described quite simply: “Alone, alone.” No one has pulled him by the tongue,” says Nikolay Silaev, a leading researcher at the Center for Caucasian Issues and Regional Security at MGIMO. According to him, “in fact, the negotiating positions of Armenia were unexpectedly weakened by the head of state”.
“At the same time, Pashinyan’s words are still quite abstract. He stated that Yerevan is ready to recognize Karabakh as Azerbaijani, provided that the security of the local population is guaranteed. What guarantees are we talking about? Who should give them? No specifics. However, it is obvious that currently no one, except Russia, will be able to provide an adequate level of security in the region,” the expert notes.
“Turkey is not suitable for this role. Ankara has a long and tragic history of interaction with Yerevan. Erdoğan hardly looks like a worthy guarantor in the eyes of Pashinyan. This is impossible even from a legal point of view – this country does not have diplomatic relations with Armenia. And it is not clear how to solve such important issues in this case, “the interlocutor emphasizes.
Silaev recalled that “according to the contracts signed in 2020, our contingent can stay in Karabakh for five years.” The expert drew attention to the fact that so far there has been no request for the withdrawal of the Russian military. In conclusion, the interlocutor expressed doubt that now someone might try to “accelerate the return of Russian soldiers home.”
Translation: V. Sergeev
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