/ world today news/ No matter how skilled the screenwriters are, their theatrical labyrinth can easily turn into a farce.
ABV should not put up a presidential candidate couple, unless they want everyone to see that “the king is naked”.
They have no electoral potential, and they do not have strong candidates – President Parvanov cannot run for a third term, Kalfin without Lambo and the BSP cannot achieve even 1/15 of their result from 2011, and there are simply no other alternatives. Or there is, but with them it is not clear in which of the penultimate places ABV will rank.
How can one not only save disgrace in this difficult situation, but also calculate political dividends for the future?
Well, they invented it, I guess.
They will cover their own weakness with an act of ritual self-sacrifice – they will make a “compromise” in the name of the united left and support a candidate pair proposed by the BSP.
The scenes played so far in the political theater labyrinth* lead in this direction, in which the members of the BSP also became actors of mimance through the so-called poll.
As many predicted, it was done to provide a formal basis for negotiations with the ABV and general participation in the presidential election. Because there is nothing to be fooled about – apart from the current coalition “BSP Left Bulgaria” and ABV, none of the other political entities named in the survey will join the game.
The theatrically exchanged, seemingly unmeasured, lines between Ninova and Parvanov will hardly remove
the feeling of pre-arrangements.
Such, it seems, were done long before May 7 and 8, when the coup in the BSP was carried out, because with the previous party leadership, they could not have happened. This explains the particular activity of the Abbeites around his overthrow and the subsequent swift action for their exit from the government a week later. Actions that were by no means spontaneous, considering Parvanov’s qualities in political engineering and intrigue.
Logic suggests that several things will happen.
Parvanov, Kalfin and ABV will not enter the presidential race, they will support the candidate for president proposed by the BSP (and passed their approval with the corresponding commitments made),
to save themselves the shame of appearing on their own and failing.
They will eventually have a candidate for vice president announced, but it is not certain that this is really in their plans either.
They won’t make a special effort for the leftist candidates to win, because it won’t matter to them. In case of success – as in that fairy tale that victory has many mothers, they will take credit for themselves. And because defeat has only one father, in the event of a loss, they will still be winners – the fault will be the people from the BSP, who, with their stubbornness, did not accept their man to lead the couple.
Following are the benefits they will calculate.
The presidential elections will allow the largely hollow (in terms of membership and potential) ABV to become a coalition partner of the BSP.
Because
the real goal is the parliamentary elections.
Then the socialist party will have to return the “gesture” and appear again in a coalition with ABV. This means not only putting their candidates on the electoral lists, but also taking them into account when the political behavior will be formed and the future governing formula and coalition with GERB will be decided.
Parvanov is not a stupid person and he realized that his offspring ABV cannot survive and his ambitions to continue to be a factor in Bulgarian political life go through the takeover of the BSP –
when it is not through the front entrance, it can be through the back.
And that the ABV is doomed was seen this spring, when entire organizations, such as the municipal organization of the ABV in Boychinovtsi, for example, publicly left and its members returned to the BSP. This unification process of the people, and not of the leadership, was very uncomfortable for Parvanov, and therefore ABV took a very active position in the BSP’s internal party affairs.
As skilled as the screenwriters are, however,
their theatrical labyrinth can turn into a farce like nothing.
If it isn’t stopped before and it doesn’t work all the way through.
Because the majority of socialists, unlike the pragmatists in the party, are people of ideas and the moment they sense what is happening, they will react. The worst thing will be for them to react by not voting, but before that they can do something much more meaningful – to insist on strong party candidates or people closely connected to the BSP, who will not be Parvanov’s puppets. And there are such personalities in the BSP.
Less likely, but not excluded, is another scenario.
Parvanov’s hints that he will also seek an alliance in the center with patriotic parties may not be just pressure on the BSP to accept his terms. Such an attempt can indeed be made, and such an alliance is not impossible – both the ABV and the Patriots have shown that political purity is not a value they hold dear.
However, this will be another bloodletting of leftist votes and reduce the chances for the BSP candidate to reach a runoff. But it will work for Parvanov’s ambitions to dictate to the left. No matter that it will be at the cost of a new collapse of the socialist party and no matter that eventually he will become a unifier of … debris. As in that fairy tale – better to be the head of a cat than the tail of a lion.
* theater labyrinth – an interactive artistic process that leads to the creation of a performance tied to a specific environment-place, in which people from the audience also participate
_______________________- The material represents the personal positions of the author
#Parvanov #BSP #entrance #goal #parliamentary #elections
