/ world today news/ The Supreme Court of Colorado ruled to remove the name of Donald Trump from the primary elections of the Republican Party for the presidential nomination of the party in 2024. What does this mean in practice?
In their 4-3 decision, the Colorado justices cited the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, adopted in the 19th century after the end of the Civil War.
More specifically to its third section, which states that “no person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or an Elector for the President or Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, in the service of the United States or in the service of any state, if he, having previously taken the oath of office as a member of Congress or an officer of the United States, or a member of the legislature of any state, or an executive or judicial officer of any state , to support the Constitution of the United States, then engaged in rebellion or sedition against the United States, or gave aid or support to its enemies. Congress may, by a two-thirds vote of each house, remove such limitation.
Such a lengthy full citation of this provision is significant because from here begins a journey into the remote swampy space called “legal casuistry.” In fact, the reasoning part of the decision of the Colorado judges at 134 pages is also long.
As the Colorado judges understand it, we’re talking about the events of January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, believed to be following his calls to “go to the Capitol” and — literally — “fight so hard , as much as we can to take back control of our country.” For this reason, Trump is now a criminal defendant
However, this decision of the judges is, to put it mildly, flawed. Even worse, it frankly smacks of politicking. And in America, they don’t like it when political pressure (in this case, preventing an apparently strong candidate from running in an election) is carried out in such an open way, as if the United States were some third-world authoritarian country.
In such cases, it is necessary to act more subtly, more delicately, as the American political practice says in this regard. So the mosquito does not undermine your nose
Serves or fulfills duties?
Colorado was once considered a Republican state, but in recent years the majority there have voted Democratic. Trump lost the state (and by 10 Electoral College votes) to Joe Biden in 2020 by 15% of the vote, which is a lot by American standards.
It’s also worth noting that all seven state Supreme Court justices were nominated at one time or another by Democratic governors (and then elected by the state legislature).
And while America’s courts are supposed to be out of politics, in practice they always consider who is tentatively “conservative”, i.e. appointed/nominated by the Republicans, and who is “liberal”, ie. , the Democratic nominee.
For comparison: now the balance in the US Supreme Court is in favor of the “conservatives” – six to three. In addition, three of the Supreme Court justices were personally nominated by Trump during his presidency.
Since the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision is not effective immediately and the defendant has the right to appeal, Trump will now turn to that same Supreme Court.
It is recommended that he get a positive decision for himself before March 5, when it is the so-called Super Tuesday and the Republican primaries will be held in several states at the same time, including Colorado.
In fact, Trump would ideally have to deal with the Supreme Court before January 4 next year. The Colorado Secretary of State will then have to certify the contestants in the GOP primary.
That position is now held, of course, by Democratic Rep. Jenna Griswold. However, she will likely be forced to keep Trump’s name on the ballot because enforcement of the state Supreme Court’s ruling is pending until the U.S. Supreme Court rules.
Also, in theory, if the US Supreme Court rules after March 5 and doesn’t go in Trump’s favor, if he wins the state’s primary, those results will be disallowed.
The decision of the Supreme Court of the United States will have a constitutional, that is, precedential character. Therefore, if the result is positive for Trump, at least in this part, everything will be fine in his election campaign.
But if the Supreme Court upholds the state Supreme Court’s decision (guided by the principle of federalism and the doctrine of “states’ rights”), it will spell real disaster for the former US president, as other states may follow Colorado. example.
There is much to consider in the decision of the Colorado judges.
First, Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution does not clearly define what constitutes rebellion and what constitutes “joining” or “participating in” a rebellion or insurrection.
Second, this section does not specifically mention the office of President of the United States, although it does mention offices in which persons are “in the service of the United States.”
In this sense, however, there is a popular interpretation in American constitutional law, according to which the President of America does not serve the United States, but performs his duties “on behalf of the whole people.”
As you know, the text of the US Constitution itself begins with the phrase “We the people of the United States…”, indicating the main source of power in the country.
Indeed, it was on this basis that an earlier lower court in the same state of Colorado refused to disqualify Trump from the Republican primary, with which the state Supreme Court in turn disagreed.
A unique and politically unprecedented situation has developed around Trump
He is facing four criminal cases at once, but at the same time, according to all polls, he is ahead of Biden in popularity by 4-6%.
What’s more, he’s performing better in national polls, something virtually unseen among Republican candidates in recent years.
The Republican Party is literally the party of the minority of American voters; democrats have a much broader base. All Republican presidents who have won an election since Ronald Reagan have received fewer absolute votes than their Democratic opponents.
Including Trump himself, after winning the presidential election against Hillary Clinton in 2016 with Electoral College votes, he lost to her by a total of about 3 million votes.
Today, Trump is ahead of Biden in support in the so-called swing states, which vote differently — either Republican or Democratic. As a rule, voting in these states decides the outcome of presidential elections this century.
Trump is also the undisputed leader in the Republican Party itself, far ahead of his closest competitors in the form of former US Permanent Representative to the UN Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Indeed, it is Trump’s popularity as the current president’s most likely challenger in the election that could ultimately work in his favor at the US Supreme Court level.
This constitutional body, looking back on its history, was extremely reluctant to interfere in matters of ongoing electoral politics.
And in this case, we will talk about the fact that, in fact, the decision of the Supreme Court against Trump will immediately mean a radical revision of the entire course of the national election campaign.
Judges are unlikely to dare such a dubious legal feat.
Translation: SM
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