Parity Reigns: College Basketball Season Full of Upsets and Unpredictability
The college basketball season has been nothing short of extraordinary, with upsets and unpredictability becoming the norm. In a recent game, Houston suffered a surprising loss to Iowa State, which left no undefeated teams in the country. This marked the beginning of a wild week in college hoops history, as several top-ranked teams fell to unranked opponents. By the end of the week, eight of the nation’s top-10 teams had lost, highlighting the unpredictable nature of this season.
Ken Pomeroy, the creator of advanced statistics site KenPom.com, has been closely analyzing the college basketball landscape. According to Pomeroy, this season is even more wide open than the previous year, which was already known for its parity. Last season, a record 54 teams cycled through the AP Top 25, foreshadowing one of the most unpredictable NCAA Tournaments in history. This year, we have already seen 47 different teams appear in the AP poll with over a month left until Selection Sunday.
One of the key factors contributing to this parity is the quality of coaching. Several Hall of Fame coaches have retired in recent seasons, and their former programs have struggled to maintain their dominance. The transition from legendary coaches like Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, and Jay Wright has not been seamless for their respective programs. The absence of dominant blue-blood programs has created room for other teams to rise and compete.
Two recent rules changes have also had a significant impact on the sport. The passage of the one-time transfer rule has allowed players to move more freely between teams. Additionally, the extra year of eligibility granted to players due to the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more experienced players on the court. This dispersion of talent among teams has led to a bunching up of competition and increased parity.
Data analysis supports the notion of a more competitive landscape. The top-ranked teams this season have had lower adjusted efficiency margins compared to previous years, indicating a lack of truly elite teams. On the other hand, teams ranked just outside the AP poll have shown higher levels of efficiency, suggesting that they are better and more capable than usual.
The age of players has also played a significant role in the current state of college basketball. With players staying in college longer than ever and the suspension of restrictions on two-time transfers, experienced talent has become paramount. Older players are proving to be just as effective, if not more so, than highly touted freshmen. The additional COVID year has made college basketball teams older and more physically mature.
The lack of dominant freshmen in the game further supports the idea of increased parity. Freshmen are making less of an impact compared to previous years, with only 14 of the top-200 players being freshmen. This trend aligns with the belief that the 2023 recruiting class was relatively weak. While there are still impactful first-year players, their numbers are significantly lower than in previous seasons.
The line between top-tier teams and underdogs has become increasingly blurred in college basketball. The belief that any team can win any game has become more prevalent throughout the season. However, there is still debate about whether this season-long parity will extend to March Madness. While data suggests a high level of unpredictability, a few teams at the top have started to separate themselves from the pack. Teams like Purdue, Connecticut, and Houston have consistently performed well and are likely to secure top seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
As we eagerly await March Madness, all signs point to an exciting and unpredictable postseason. The college basketball landscape is filled with uncertainty, making this season one for the books.