Paraguay continues to be the best positioned country in business climate, according to the Economic Climate Indicator (ICE) report in Latin America, measured every three months by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), of Brazil.
Specifically, Paraguay has a score of 149.2 in the Economic Climate Index, in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a drop of 23.5 points compared to the third quarter of 2023.
In this way, our country is among those with the greatest losses along with Bolivia (28.8 points), Brazil (21.4 points) and Peru (20.5 points), all very far from the average increase of 2.4 points that Latin America showed.
As can be seen in the report, with the exception of Mexico and Chile, all countries registered a loss of points in the ICE evaluation. However, even with these strong falls, Paraguay and Uruguay remain in the favorable zone and Brazil, in the border zone, with the ICE equal to 100 points.
It is important to mention that the ICE is a geometric average between the Current Situation Indicator (ISA) and the Expectations Indicator (IE).
At this point, with regard to the ISA, Paraguay in the fourth quarter registered a drop of 33.3 points. Only Mexico and Paraguay are in the favorable zone in this indicator.
Regarding the measurement of expectations, the report shows that our country also registered a negative variation (14.2 points) and Paraguay’s score in this sense is 142.9 points, also in a favorable zone.
In summary, eight countries recorded a drop in the ICE; six countries, in the ISA; one country maintained the same position and six countries in the IE maintained the same position.
In the selection of the ten countries analyzed, 80% regressed with respect to ICE and 60%, in the case of ISA and IE.
GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024
In its report, the Getulio Vargas Foundation also discloses its growth projection of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this sense, for the year 2024, experts project a drop in the GDP growth rates of Paraguay, Mexico, Brazil, Bolivia and Ecuador in relation to 2023, but the differences do not exceed 0.5 percentage points. (See graph).
Our country would slightly slow down its growth rate, since from the level of 4.4% at which it is expected to close in 2023, it would expand by 4% in 2024, according to FGV projections. Even with this reduction, we would once again be leading the economic dynamism of the region next year.
The other countries registered an improvement, with emphasis on Uruguay, which increased from 0.9% to 3%; while Peru would go from 0.4% to 2.5%; For Chile, it is expected to go from negative growth of 0.7% to positive growth of 1.2%; and Argentina would register a smaller drop in its growth, going from negative -2.2% to -0.1%.
2023-12-13 15:12:58
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