The appointment for the presidential elections in Paraguay is next April 30. Around 4.8 million people are expected to go to the polls to resolve what everything indicates will be again a dispute between the Colorado Party, the current ruling party, and the Liberal Partyin a scenario marked by allegations of corruption and a particular “soccer match” climate.
Less than a month before the elections, the majority agrees that the Colorado candidate Santiago Peña (44) is the favorite to succeed and succeed the current president, Mario Abdo Benítez. Peña is considered a dolphin of former conservative president Horacio Cartes (2013-2018), a wealthy tobacco businessman, current president of that political formation and sanctioned as “significantly corrupt” by the United States.
In front of him, the leader of the liberal party Efraín Alegre appears, a 60-year-old lawyer who with a concertation of the opposition forces tries for the third time to win the presidency and who has fired large ammunition against Benítez and Peña.
The confrontation between Peña and Alegre takes place in a particular scenario, where it is estimated that up to 75% of the voters consider their party affiliation as part of their social identity, and vote according to that inclination.
“In Paraguay, people vote as if they were fans of a soccer team. Being a colorado or a liberal is a social identity and that means those fans vote for your team. 50% of the voters are from the Colorado Party, and 25% are from the Liberal Party. Two thirds of the voters vote according to that affiliation“, explains the professor of the National University of Pilar, Marcello Lachi, an expert in the Paraguayan electoral system, in dialogue with Radio France International (RFI).
For Lachi, the ruling party has an advantage despite the allegations of corruption launched from the United States due to the weakness of the alliance that promotes Alegre.
“Peña has an advantage because this time the Liberals could not build a very strong alliance. There are candidacies from small left-wing parties that five years ago did participate in the alliance that lost against the Colorado party, but this time they are promoting other people,” says Lachi.
In the last 70 years, On only one occasion was the Colorado Party left out of the government in Paraguayduring the presidency of former left-wing bishop Fernando Lugo (2008-12), dismissed a year before the end of his term, after a series of paternity scandals and after being found guilty of “bad performance” of his duties.
What the polls say
Until now, it has not been possible to organize a debate between the two main candidates, polls show opposite trends.
The pollster GEO (Gabinete de Estudios de Opinion) gives Alegre (38.9%) a favorite over Peña (35.2%).
Much further behind are the anti-establishment candidate Paraguayo Cubas (10%), the socialist Euclides Acevedo (6%) and José Luis Chilavert, former goalkeeper for the Paraguayan national team and for Vélez Sarsfield in Argentina, with less than 1%.
In Paraguay, the presidential election is a single round.
The firm Ati Snead Consultores instead predicts the victory of Peña (46.2%) against Alegre (38.7%).
The winner of the elections will replace Abdo Benítez on August 15 for a period of five years. On April 30, the vice president, 45 titular senators (30 substitutes), 80 titular deputies (more than 80 substitutes), 17 governors and 257 government councilors will also be elected.
Almost 4.8 million people are eligible to voteout of a population of 7.5 million, in these elections that will be observed by missions of the Organization of American States and the European Union.
“Someone who is not willing to submit to a debate cannot aspire to be president,” Alegre recently declared, after Peña made his participation in a presidential debate conditional on the inclusion of the other candidates.
“Peña has no political experience, let alone political leadership. That is what will be evidenced in a debate. That is why he is afraid, ”she stressed.
Source: AFP and RFI
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