– A dictator who has the support of the security service can take the lives of those closest to him who are not loyal enough. But a dictator must work to retain the support of the inner circle. And he has it, until he no longer has it.
Dag Einar Thorsen, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Southeast Norway, explains what happens behind the scenes before a “palace revolution”.
For most people, the term is unknown. Nevertheless, it has been brought up by several Russia experts who talk about possible scenarios if dissatisfaction with Putin spreads among his supporters.
Palace revolution is a term for coup d’etat where a head of state is ruled by his closest circle.
Nor is it a new concept in Soviet political history. The best-known example is the transition from Khrushchev to Brezhnev in 1964, says Thorsen, who has researched totalitarianism and political history.
– No dictator can rule alone. They depend on people around them who are loyal to the dictator personally or his ideology.
He points out that Putin has taken a risky maneuver by invading the neighboring country. A lot can go wrong – and then the dissatisfaction spreads.
– And especially now that things are not going the way he had wanted. For every day that passes without Kyiv being captured, and images of Russian tanks stuck in the swamp circulating, the more difficult it is for the highest-ranking officers in the Russian army to accept Putin’s war, Thorsen says.
– Extremely risky
To retain power, a dictator must have control over his inner circle. That is also the case with Putin.
– But if they notice that Putin’s end is approaching, they must bet on another horse to retain both power and money. Then things can go very fast, explains associate professor Thorsen.
This means that it is often the closest ones who play a central role in regime changes or takeovers in authoritarian regimes.
– For the dictator, it is therefore important to ensure that those closest to him have loyalty to him personally, and that they have few or no opportunities to talk to each other without the dictator being present in the room.
AWAKENED ATTENTION: Putin’s behavior towards his closest leaders at a meeting of the Russian Security Council on February 21 this year received a great deal of attention. The intelligence chief in particular, Sergei Naryshkin, was humiliated during the meeting. Photo: NTB Scanpix / Alexei Nikolsky / Russian Presidential Press / TASS / Sipa USA
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But if they are so high up that they can threaten the dictator’s power, they will probably be kept under close supervision, Thorsen believes.
– One of the most dangerous things you can be in a dictatorship is not an ordinary citizen, but a leader at the level just below the dictator.
Should anyone close to Putin plan to remove him in a coup, they must therefore be careful about who they talk to. And to have a chance to overthrow a dictator, one must have an alliance, the researcher believes.
– But building this type of alliance is extremely risky. It does not take more than one gossip on the other, then the coup attempt is dead.
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The radio signal
While a coup is often loud, bloody and brutal, a palace revolution can go unnoticed by the rest of the population – until a new leader is in place.
– It is not until Russian radio stations start playing classical music that you know that something is happening, Thorsen says.
When the tanks rolled into the streets of Moscow during the coup attempt in the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian ballet piece Swan Lake was played on TV “in a loop”.
It has since been referred to as a sure sign that something is going on.
– There are probably few who walk around hoping for a coup or civil war, but a palace revolution is perhaps something one can hope for.
PUTIN MAN: According to Russia expert Tor Bukkvoll, Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev is one of the few Putin listens to. Here in February 2020. Photo: AP / NTB
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– No Crown Prince
The researcher will not go too far in speculating on Putin’s future. He thinks it appears that there is no clear number two in the regime today.
– It is Putin who is the top, and maybe a few dozen others at the level below him. There is no clear crown prince or hierarchy of power.
This means that “anything can happen”, we must believe Thorsen.
– But the decisive actors in this case are probably the military. They are the ones sitting on the state’s sharpest means of power.
And no one is more against war than the professional military, the researcher believes. He calls the professional military “the critical piece of the puzzle.”
– They are not on planet Z. They have information about what is happening on the ground. There may be many rebellious colonels and majors in the defense, who are trying to get some of the generals to join them. Or other jokers who have a name or a reputation, such as former politicians.
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