Four named storms are swirling in the North Pacific, including one aimed directly at Japan. (NOAA/AP)
Four storms with name swirl in the North Pacificincluding one that points directly to Japanwhich is expected to suffer serious impacts. Three of the others –Hone, Gilma y Hector– form a conga line together as they march west in the vicinity of Hawaii. Hone has just grazed the Big Island with torrential rains like hurricaneand the remains of the Hurricane Gilma could happen by the end of this week.
Shanshanthe strongest of the group, is a typhoon rapidly intensifying and could hit Japan with a force equivalent to at least a hurricane Category 1 or 2. Virtually all the Japanese Archipelago has been affected by Hurricane Shanshan. Virtually the entire Japanese archipelago is in line to be drenched by Shanshan, although prefectures in Shikoku y Kyushu will bear the brunt of strong winds, torrential rains and storm surge.
The crowded Pacific contrasts sharply with the Atlanticdevoid of tropical systems since Ernesto transitioned into a mid-latitude storm on August 20. Although it is peak season, no storms are expected to form for another week or more.
Hone drenched the Big Island of Hawaii with more than a foot of rain over the weekend. (Getty Images)
Former Hurricane Hone soaked the Big Island of Hawaii with more than 30 centimeters of rain over the weekend. The highest totals were concentrated in the southeastern part of the island, the direction from which Hone’s rain bands arrived. The resulting “upslope” – the process by which mountainous terrain pushes air upward – helped squeeze all the moisture out of the air on the windward side. This led to torrential rains. Kaiholenaa mountainous place in the southeast of the Big Island, recorded 50 centimeters of rain.
On the leeward side of the peaks of the Big Island, the air descending down the slope dried out, resulting in insignificant precipitation. In the western part of the island, there was hardly any rain. 1 centimeter. At the Kailua-Kona airport they barely fell 1.45 centimeters. Hone also brought tropical storm force winds, with gusts of up to 80 kilometers per hour in Ocean Viewat the southern tip of the Big Island, and 46 kilometers per hour in Communicationon the southeast coast.
The storm was a Category 1 hurricane when it passed south of the Big Island. Now, it is a tropical storm with maximum winds of 112 kilometers per hour. It is about 386 kilometers west-southwest of Honolulu and moves westward, away from the Hawaiian Islands.
Hurricane Gilma is located 1,250 miles (2,032 kilometers) east of Hilo, Hawaii, and moving west at 9 mph (14 kph). (NOAA/AP)
Hurricane Gilma is located 2,032 kilometers to the east of HiloHawaii, and moves west to 14 kilometers per hour. It suffered several episodes of rapid intensification, peaking at Category 4 on Sunday. It is now a Category 2 with winds of up to 160 kilometers per hour.
Gilma has remained mainly in open waters of the east, and now the center, of the North Pacific OceanIt will continue to drift westward and should slowly weaken, but is expected to bring showers and breezy winds as its remnants swirl across the Hawaiian archipelago Friday into Saturday.
Tropical storm Hector is behind Gilma and has winds of 80 kilometers per hour. It is located at 1,737 kilometers west-southwest of the southern end of the Baja California Peninsulabut it is unlikely to become a hurricane. Hector is battling strong winds aloft that are pushing to disrupt its circulation – winds have already blown the mid-level center south of the low-level center.
Tropical Storm Hector is located 1,737 kilometers west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. (File)
And sea surface temperatures are marginal at best for storm sustainment — Gilma churned up cooler waters from below along its path. So Hector will likely continue westward for several days before dissipating.
The largest storm, Shanshan, is located a few hundred kilometers east of the Ryukyu Islands. At this time it has maximum winds close to 169 kilometers per hourmaking it the equivalent of a medium Category 2 hurricane.
For days, it has been battling wind shear, or a disruptive change in wind speed and direction with height, that has been working to destabilize it. But those hostile winds are forecast to ease.
Shanshan is therefore expected to become a Category 3 typhoon on Tuesday, with winds of between 201 and 209 kilometers per hour. It should advance in a west-northwest direction towards Kyushuthe southwesternmost of Japan’s main islands, and could make landfall late Wednesday or Thursday with the intensity of a Category 1 or 2 typhoon.
Typhoon Shanshan is located a few hundred kilometers east of the Ryukyu Islands. (EFE/EPA/Franck Robichon)
When Shanshan makes landfall midweek, gusty winds are possible. 145 to 193 kilometers per hour at the southern tip of Japan, along with 38 to 64 centimeters rain along the southern coasts of Shikoku and Kyushu.
Thereafter, a mid-latitude low pressure system, with a resulting depression of the jet stream, is forecast to drag Shanshan northeastward. It is likely to affect large areas of Japan and cause tropical storm effects in Honshuthe country’s largest island, between Thursday and the weekend. It is likely that Tokio torrential rains and strong winds are felt.
There is some chance that Shanshan will not be captured by the jet stream. If that were the case, there would be weaker steering currents that could abandon Shanshan and allow it to lurch around Japan for longer. While this is not likely, the storm could wander around the region for days in this scenario, prolonging the rain and wind.
(c) 2024, The Washington Post
