ÖVP’s Election Disaster in Innsbruck: Can Chancellor Nehammer Turn it Around?

The few studies, although not very reliable, are before the study The election of Innsbruck it was not good for the chancellor’s party. However, the result on election night was even worse. This time, the Innsbruck ÖVP, traditionally marred by trench warfare, wanted to be united and with the torch of hope to recapture the state capital for the citizens. But Florian Tursky, who gave up his post as State Secretary for Digitization in Vienna specifically for this mission, ended up in a disappointing fifth place with 10.2 percent.

In the analysis, there are two schools of thought competing for air superiority. One, which is more friendly to ÖVP, sees mainly local factors at work, above all, a party landscape that has always been cracked, which is especially true for the bourgeois camp. It is argued here that even a tailwind from the federal government could not have changed much. That’s not entirely wrong – see 13 lists and former ÖVP member Johannes Anzengruber, who took second place with his own list. However, that is only half the truth.

This also includes the fact that there are special conditions in Innsbruck – and also in the elections in the city of Salzburg in March – but the large loss of votes over the past two years has combined to create a general feeling: in their black region, Lower Austria the ÖVP lost 9.7 percentage points, in Salzburg 7.7 and in Tyrol 9.5 percentage points. In Carinthia alone, the ÖVP achieved an increase of only 1.6 percentage points. And in surveys, the Chancellor’s Party has long been in third place with just over 20 percent, behind the FPÖ and SPÖ.

For the ÖVP it is about a lot, almost everything

This raises the question: How damaged is the core of the ÖVP’s political brand some two and a half years after former shooting star Sebastian Kurz resigned in the fall of 2021 due to legal investigations and pressure from the green coalition partner? Does the chancellor and party leader Karl Nehammer still have the chance and ability to turn things around – or has it been the case for the four elections that are still not completed already. As a reminder: In addition to the EU and National Council elections, the cards will also be reshuffled in Styria and Vorarlberg in the autumn. So for the ÖVP it is about a lot, and some even think it is about everything.

The fact that the party is in a dilemma does not make it easier to find a way out: a break with the Kurz era and personality would paralyze the party in the election campaign because too many representatives and His officials consider it a loss. enemy plot. At the same time, her former president’s incessant desire for public appearances prevents at least a gradual release. And then of course there are the ongoing investigations and proceedings that follow the turquoise flight as a dark shadow.

Only the EU elections on June 9 will provide certainty about how the ÖVP is doing. Then it will be clear how Nehammer’s party is able to campaign after several failures – from the mainstream culture to the new normal – and whether it lacks studies and the FPÖ is overvalued. There is certainly evidence of this. Indeed, that is one of the two remaining hopes. The other is that Nehammer gains political and status in the direct – and personal – conflict with his rivals Herbert Kickl and Andreas Babler, the leaders of the FPÖ and SPÖ, when he comes to the chancellorship. This is also why the ÖVP is already putting everything into a personal election campaign.

And if not? Then the party has to face it, says a senior black man. After all: the party is closed to the outside world. At least that puts her ahead of the SPÖ. On Monday, Tursky even made an election proposal for renegade ÖVP member Johannes Anzengruber. You don’t want to give up their voices without a fight.