With the new year, the application of the reduction in the VAT rate on fuel and fuel ceased from 1 January instead of 8 percent. it’s 23% again.. Interestingly, fuel prices at stations have not changed. We’ve written more about specific rates HERE.
How is it possible? The answers are to be found in the wholesale fuel market. In the last couple of months, strange things have happened compared to what we have seen in the stations. Prices have not behaved in a typical way. They were as if detached from the reality of the market.
“Since November we have seen a divergence in wholesale and retail prices. The market moved one way and the wholesale market the other. It was growing up. The fact is that on the last day of December, these wholesale prices decreased by about PLN 0.80 per liter, or about a dozen percentage points – comments Marcin Mazurek, chief economist of mBank, in an interview with Business Insider.
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Prices at petrol stations in the new year have not changed in principle, despite a much higher VAT rate, although theoretically they should. Application? — Wholesale prices previously adjusted by 15%. VAT increase – emphasizes the expert.
He admits there was clearly an anomaly there. She notices it if prices had behaved in a typical way, we would have had a bigger drop in inflation towards the end of 2022. Meanwhile, the index was higher.
Let’s remember that it’s official Data from the Central Statistics Office (GUS) indicated 17.5% in November. inflation. According to Marcin Mazurek inflation could fall below 17%.were it not for the high fuel prices. Without them, there would be a chance of up to 16% in December. Meanwhile, forecasts suggest 17.3%.
Something for something. The effect of “overvalued” inflation in late 2022 will be a smaller increase in the index in early 2023. mBank forecasts assume that in January the indicator should settle at around 19 per cent.
The effects of such an unusual situation on the fuel market can vary. Entrepreneurs are not quite happy with the turn of eventsfor whom VAT is neutral, because they regulate it as part of their business. Excessive fuel prices in late 2022 worked against them.
Theoretically, various types of beneficiaries who receive inflation-indexed money from the state can benefit.
Recently, there have been many comments about the strange behavior of fuel prices. We are happy that there are no increases. Climate Minister Anna Mosca said on Monday when asked about the situation on the fuel market after the reintroduction of VAT from January 1. He added that if there were misconduct by companies that sell fuel, the Office for Competition and Consumer Protection could intervene.
— If there is no such intervention, there is no control, there are no conclusions from the control, it means that the situation is stable and correct. Orlen has detailed its operating profits in recent weeks and we know they have been many times lower than those of its German counterparts, the minister stressed.