Over 50 percent chance of direct Fire relegation

Less than 2 hours ago

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– 50/50, we take it. The two points up give them an advantage mathematically, but if you look at the last four or five games it is we who have taken the most points, says Brann stopper Fredrik Pallesen to VG.

At the request of VG, the Norwegian Computing Center has calculated the remaining matches 50,000 times on a computer and calculated 50,000 corresponding tables.

It appears that Brann has a 53.4 per cent chance of direct relegation, while there is a 63.9 per cent chance that they will be relegated either via direct relegation or via qualification.

– I let the statistics speak for themselves, then I have faith in my teammates and the form we are in. We must focus on performance and deliver well in the training field. Then we will pick points throughout the autumn, says Pallesen.

The statistics do not address the teams’ current form. In the last five games, Brann has picked up seven points. There are as many as series runners-up Molde.

It is worse for Stabæk, Mjøndalen and Tromsø, who all stand with at least four games in a row without a win. Mjøndalen has not won since the 3-0 victory against Haugesund on 10 July.

– It sounds like the Norwegian Computing Center for once hits quite well, says Christian Gauseth.

– We have won two of 19 matches. To say that it looks bright, it does not. But this is what has been our foundation – everything has been at stake in the last game three years in a row. And it has gone well every time. There is a reason for that. So if we manage to pull those forces forward, then this is going just fine, he continues.

At Nadderud, there is only one thing that applies now.

– The chances are very good for us. We are dependent on the others and are very lucky considering how few points we have taken, says Stabæk sports manager Torgeir Bjarmann, but believes that the team will be much better.

– They will probably have to recalculate, because we will manage, Bjarmann says with a smile.

Stabæk stopper Simen Wangberg thinks the number crunchers will hit with the probability.

– It really means quite a bit. There are four teams and we will meet two of them. There will be very important matches. It is absolutely possible to stay, the statistics do not mean much, says teammate Fredrik Haugen.

– It is about taking points against those around you. We have to mobilize so that there will be bonus matches for those who are basically tough, says Wangberg, who hopes for an offensive in the player group.

However, they went on a new bang in the cup this week:

They have both experienced relegation battles before and know what it’s going on. In 2014, the Bergen native Haugen was relegated to the OBOS league with Brann.

– Fire is a bit in the same situation. The pressure is probably a little greater there than here, but we have at least as much desire to stay, says Haugen.

Fredrik Pallesen makes no secret of the fact that there is an extra “push” in Bergen.

– My experience is that it is quite bad. The supporters in Bergen care enormously that Brann will stay in the Elite Series. It is fantastic with commitment, but when you play for Brann it is almost like you have to think about other things and what you can do something with, says Pallesen – and adds:

– I have not felt any great dissatisfaction, there is more support from the supporters. You get a lot of comments that “you can do this”.

Published

Published: September 25, 2021 3:32 PM

Updated: September 25, 2021 4:55 PM

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The elite series

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• Champions League qualifier
• Conference League Qualification
• Relegation qualification
• Relegation

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