Federer will play at least one half in Grand Slam
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When we know the pedigree of the man, this “bet” may seem lacking in boldness. At the top of his game, Roger Federer has played no less than 23 semifinals in a row in Major. This is to say if on its scale a last square is almost a non-event. In fact, during these last three appearances on the biggest stages, he has succeeded twice: a final at Wimbledon in 2019 and a half in Melbourne last year, for a quarter at Flushing in the meantime.
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Yes but here it is, time does its work all the same and the old fellow has squeaky knuckles. His right knee, twice “arthroscopic” in 2020, will have kept him a little over a year (at best) away from the circuit. As talented as the animal is, finding the pace and a physique capable of taking several matches in the best of five sets will be a real challenge. It is no coincidence that Federer skipped the Australian Open: he simply did not feel capable of going for the win.
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However, the guy works only for that: the certainty that he can still play the leading roles. Otherwise, he won’t come back. And that’s also why, despite his weak knee and his recurring back problems approaching forty, I think he can still go to the semi-finals of a Grand Slam. Even if he should only have two chances of achieving it: Wimbledon and the US Open. Melbourne already in oblivion, it seems risky to imagine it mortgaging a very busy summer (with the Tokyo Games) on the demanding clay court of Roland Garros.
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While Federer himself considered the possibility that he might not be able to resume the course of his immense career, a half in Major would be one hell of a performance. The breathtaking revival of 2017 would probably be asking too much, but in 2016 at Wimbledon, he had grazed the final on one leg (at the time, it was the left knee that was creaking). Racket in hand, there is no reason why the magic no longer operates: to see him repeat the feat with a good draw is not a pipe dream, I am convinced.
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Djokovic won’t win more than one Grand Slam
I’m always a little surprised when I hear that there is no doubt, at the rate he’s going, that Novak Djokovic will join and quickly overtake Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the number of Grand Slams won. This amounts, I find, to trivializing the value and the difficulty of a victory in a major tournament. Okay, it’s kind of his fault, Djoko. During the past decade (2011-2020), he has stacked 16, at an average rate of almost two per season if we remove 2017, the only one where he won nothing because he was injured. Seen like that, it looks easy, it’s true. It is damn not.
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And it will be all the less so for the Serbian as he will soon be 34, an age where despite the lengthening of the duration of careers, the air in the summits is starting to become scarce. The “Covidian” cut of the 2020 season didn’t seem to have the best effects on him and the recovery showed two things:
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1. Its margin over its rivals has shrunk
2. He seems to be putting enormous pressure on this history of Grand Slam charts, a goal that he is the only one in the Big 3 to admit is very important to him.
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I am one of those who thinks that Novak Djokovic is the strongest player in the world (in history?) Mentally, maybe also physically. These are clearly the two pillars of his glory. But it is a double-edged sword. It suffices for him to decrease by 2% on one of these parameters for his whole game to crumble and he finds himself at the mercy of a large number of players, where the “average” level a Nadal at Roland Garros, for example, is enough to save him from a defeat against 95% of his opponents.
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However, I am afraid for Djokovic that this pressure which he put in Grand Slam, the reduction of his psychological ascendancy, the progression of young people and the natural erosion of the years will end up costing him dearly. I might bet on him again in Australia. But not more.
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Novak Djokovic at the Masters 2020 in London.
Credit: Getty Images
Parity in Grand Slam between the Big 3 and the others
By dint of waiting and announcing it, the NextGen will eventually arrive safely. So goes life and the course of time. In 2020, during a season unlike any other and cut off from one of the four Majors (who had the rich idea of taking out insurance), an “intruder” has already been invited to the list of the three remaining Grand Slams: Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is technically not NextGen, trademarked by the ATP, but his victory at the US Open has given a little facelift to the circuit while the honors have been reserved for thirties in recent years. To Djokovic, Nadal or Federer, not to mention them.
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If the latter, by winning the Australian Open (Djoko) and Roland-Garros (Rafa) have mathematically kept the major part of the Majors in the pocket of the famous “Big 3” which we hope will eventually be reconstituted in 2021 with the return of who you know, I would be amazed if the record was better in 2021. I think that for the first time since 2016, half of the Grand Slam titles at best will be gleaned by the immortals of the circuit.
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Rafael Nadal will be big favorite to his own succession to Roland, as usual, Novak Djokovic should find a playing field to glean an 18th Grand Slam title. But I can see an Alexander Zverev, finalist in New York in 2020, a Daniil Medvedev, one finger away from the coronation in the same city a year earlier, a Stefanos Tsitsipas or an Andrey Rublev climbing a notch in 2021. Their evolution might not be as dramatic as the marketing would like, but when you step back, it’s more linear than it looks. In recent years, or months, they have paid to learn. Time is on their side now. And it is quite possible that he came.
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Thiem and Medvedev closer than ever to Federer, Nadal and Djokovic
Humbert in the World Top 10
At first glance, it is not won. But why not ! To see a new French player in the World Top 10 today would be like playing roulette: a lot of potential, but few winning numbers. Over the past fifteen years, we have been fortunate to have several Tricolores who have entered this closed circle: Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, then Gaël Monfils joined this small group, himself the last to have there still figured. But this generation, which has already eased its footing, is still waiting for the next generation. That’s good: it’s for this year!
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So who to take over? I rule out Lucas Pouille, the last ‘new’ Frenchman to be in the Top 10 two short weeks in March 2018, but too tight physically and mentally to make a comeback in 2021. And without offending their talent, I do not see the thirty-something Benoît Paire and Adrian Mannarino achieving it either.
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For me, the Frenchman who has the most potential is Ugo Humbert. He is 31st in the world at 22 (but 15th in terms of points taken in 2020) and already has important victories to his credit against players of his generation: like Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, Denis Shapovalov or Daniil Medvedev, then 5th. world, in Hamburg, his best performance so far. He clinched two titles in 2020 and made the round of 16 at Wimbledon in 2019, a sign that he is capable of winning trophies and breaking into a big table.
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When we see that players like Isner, Sock, Bautista Agut, Rublev or even Schwartzmann have achieved this in recent years, I tell myself that Ugo Humbert has the game, the head and shoulders to make him also an appearance in the World top 10. But we must not kid ourselves: staying there will be another story. Ranking level, he is currently 1400 points from 10th place held by Matteo Berrettini. Almost double its current total. But by making a success of his start to the season, he will have a chance to make his hole. He is already sure to keep his 250 points acquired in Auckland, this tournament won last year being canceled in 2021. All he needs to do is cross a course in Major or Masters 1000… which will be for this year!
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Ugo Humbert at the Rolex Paris Masters in 2020
Credit: Getty Images
Thiem will become world No. 1
It would be a revolution and, in writing it, I admit that I need to pinch myself. But if I would not bet all my modest fortune on it, I think it is not impossible: yes, Dominic Thiem has the means to overturn the table to become world number one, a throne that, for now 17 years, four players only occupied: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. And even. The first three named have monopolized power 95% of the time during this period.
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Novak Djokovic still firmly holds the first place. Rafael Nadal remains his dolphin, but thanks to the frozen results of 2019. On the only points taken during the year 2020, Dominic Thiem would be world number 2 behind the Serbian. If he officially became No. 2, it would already be a small revolution. The last player outside the Big Four to climb this high? Lleyton Hewitt in … July 2005.
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But he has assets to go even higher. At 27, he is in the prime of his life and at the peak of his physical and tennis expression, with experience as an asset without the weight of years as a burden. If Djokovic and Nadal know a little less well (a huge “if”, let’s agree), he could take advantage.
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Nicolas Massu’s protégé has become an ultra-complete player. Last year, he won the US Open, played the final in Australia and the Masters and the repositioning of Roland-Garros in the fall as the thinness of the Terran calendar served him. Apart from the grass (where I remain convinced that he can be competitive if not dominating), he can win everywhere. But to gain power, in addition to a little helping hand from the Djokodal duo, he will also, and above all, need to win more grand finals than he loses. Its ratio is very negative in this area. He will have to fix it.
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I don’t see Thiem as a “Dominator” of world men’s tennis for years. His reign, if he intervenes, will undoubtedly be more like a form of regency. But he has a chance to seize and it is now that she presents herself to him.
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Dominic Thiem
Credit: Getty Images
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