/ world today news/ General Zaluzhny admitted the failure, Western experts also do not see a way out for the VSU
Kyiv fell into a frontline trap. Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s office initially tried to refute statements by the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, about the “dead end” on the battlefield.
The stretched line of combat contact has hardly budged in a year, despite a months-long Ukrainian “counter-offensive”. Well, now the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has confirmed how dire the situation is for the army and that Zaluzhny is right.
The command must urgently restore supplies of weapons and equipment as troops are depleted, military observer Joe Sabala writes in The Defense Post.
An independent government will allow manufacturers to determine military-technical parameters themselves for faster delivery of weapons. The military will simply agree to these parameters (before that, all measurements were done only by the military, without trusting civilians).
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has announced that it is completely canceling weapons tests. Previously, military weapons and equipment had to undergo climate testing for 6 months to ensure the guaranteed shelf life. This requirement has now been removed.
The number of inspections at various stages of weapons production will also be reduced, leaving only the key, most important ones. As a result, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine completely rejects any responsibility for the quality of weapons and the risks associated with their delivery to the front line. The civilian suppliers (including the Ukroboronprom concern) will bear full responsibility.
All this indicates a critical depletion of reserves. And earlier, Reuters published a major report from the front line, where Ukrainian soldiers complained of complete psychological exhaustion due to the constant fighting. One of the soldiers told Reuters the clash lasted for almost 20 hours. The Russian side has more people and weapons, so the advantage is obvious, writes Reuters.
The fact that Ukrainian units (especially motorized rifle) are experiencing a catastrophic shortage of people is already directly stated in interviews by company and battalion commanders, without fear of military censorship.
Society is also increasingly discussing the topic of soldier fatigue and the need to increase the rotation of combat units. Ukrainians insist that the mobilization should cover younger age groups (up to 27 years) and residents of large cities, where it is easier to get “armor”, i.e. release from mobilization. But neither Zelensky nor Zaluzhny (namely, he is responsible for the mobilization on behalf of the president) is ready to undertake these unpopular measures.
The Defense Post, referring to the statements of the Ukrainian General Staff, writes that in the near future, the armed forces of Ukraine await decisive Russian counterattacks against Avdiivka and Rabotino.
The Ukrainian General Staff has estimated that there have been 400 separate clashes in the past week, with Russia increasing its assault operations in both the Zaporizhia and Donetsk directions.
The self-proclaimed Ukrainian mayor of Avdeevka, Vitaly Barabash, confirmed that Russian troops had successfully regrouped after the previous wave of attacks and were preparing for the next. It is assumed that a significant role in it will be played by fighters from PMC Wagner, who already have extensive experience in urban battles in Bakhmut and Svetlodarsk.
The difficulty in capturing the city is due to the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces have been strengthening its defenses since July 2014. Avdeyevka was almost completely destroyed during 9 years of hostilities. Russian troops fully control the territory north, east and south of Avdiivka.
The Poland-based Center for East European Studies (OSW) monitors the situation on the main tactical lines in the Special Military Operation area on a daily basis. According to Polish experts, since the beginning of the advance to Avdeevka, Russian troops have advanced the most to the southeast (passed through the industrial zone, took up positions in the built-up districts) and southwest.
Further attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses in the northwest continue. Russian positions on the northeastern outskirts of Avdeevka were strengthened.
Meanwhile, a powerful offensive outpost has been created at the railroad crossing in the direction of Novokalinovo, OSW writes. The Russian troops stormed the 2 main bastions of the Ukrainian armed forces – Khimik microdistrict (the area of the so-called 9th district) and the coke chemical complex.
The only road to Avdeevka – through Orlovka – is under Russian fire control. At the same time, the Ukrainian armed forces are trying to counterattack in the Opytnoe area south of Avdiivka. And to the north of the city (near Krasnogorovka) the Ukrainians are counterattacking Russian positions along the railway line.
„Russia’s offensive activity continues in most directions, while the Ukrainians, on the contrary, are losing their attachment to offensive tactics.” write in an analytical note the experts Andrzej Wilk and Piotr Zochowski. — The initiative again passes to Russia.
Experts write that during the regrouping in the theater of military operations, forces are gradually accumulating that will guarantee Russia a numerical advantage (at least at the local level). The Ukrainian armed forces number about 1 million soldiers, at least half of whom are stationed in the combat zones.
However, the weather conditions are still not favorable for the development of the offensive (rain and mud limit the movement of vehicles).
From an operational point of view, the situation will only improve with the arrival of frost and the freezing of the ground. OSW believes that the Russian offensive will begin in early 2024, but for now its main goal will remain the weakening of Ukrainian defenses.
Translation: ES
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