– This would normally be an irrelevant issue for Moscow. But the war in Ukraine may have changed the rules of the game and Moscow’s priorities, says senior researcher Helge Blakkisrud at NUPI.
South Ossetia is internationally recognized as part of Georgia, but is in practice controlled by Russian-backed separatists.
Last week, President Anatoly Bibilov announced a referendum to incorporate the region into Russia.
The breakaway republic is economically and militarily dependent on Russia, which has had troops deployed there since the war between Georgia and Russia in 2008.
Cool reception
After the war in 2008, Russian authorities recognized South Ossetia as independent.
However, South Ossetia has never been heard of being incorporated into Russia from Moscow, even though they have repeatedly tried.
What makes it different this time is the timing.
– This is another attempt to test Moscow. South Ossetia will see if the Russian authorities are now more willing to meet them now given the situation in Ukraine, Blakkisrud says.
Escape from Putin’s bombing: – Terrorist
– Only downsides
According to several media, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has stated that Moscow has not taken any action in the case. Nevertheless:
– The people of South Ossetia will express their opinion, and we will respect that, said Peskov.
Blakkisrud puts the plot in the context of an upcoming presidential election in the breakaway republic, and does not believe this time that Russia will accept South Ossetia’s outstretched hand.
– Russia has the control they need. If we are to look at it rationally, it is mostly just downsides to annexing South Ossetia, says the senior researcher.
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The Georgian authorities, for their part, have flatly denied that the referendum can be held.
– During such an occupation, a referendum will not be legally valid, said Georgia’s Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani during a meeting with Denmark’s Foreign Minister last week, according to NTB.
Traveled myself to Ukraine
South Ossetia’s president, Anatoly Bibilov, himself traveled to Ukraine shortly after announcing the referendum on Russia’s incorporation.
On Sunday, he posted a video on his Instagram account that is to be taken at a hospital in Mariupol. In the text of the post, he writes that he has handed over humanitarian aid from South Ossetia.
He is also said to have visited the so-called People’s Republic of Donetsk. On Sunday, he posted a picture with Denis Pushilin, president of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Eastern Ukraine.
Blakkisrud at NUPI has for a number of years researched unrecognized states such as South Ossetia and the two so-called People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk.
When the 82-year-old returned home, the border fence went through his garden
– These non-recognized states cooperate a lot with each other. Since they do not have access to ordinary diplomatic arenas, they use the opportunities that present themselves to give the impression that they are part of an international community, says Blakkisrud.
Tens of thousands have left
Blakkisrud, who himself came home from Georgia’s capital Tbilisi on Sunday, says that the plot created reactions there as well.
LITTLE PROBABLE: Helge Blakkisrud does not think Russia will have anything to gain from incorporating South Ossetia. Photo: Christopher Olssøn / NUPI
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For the Georgian authorities, however, the question is not primarily what happens to South Ossetia, which the Georgian authorities consider a Russian-occupied territory, but how Russia relates to the rest of the country. One is worried that Russia will go to further military aggression, says Blakkisrud.
In recent decades, Georgia has approached the West politically to a far greater extent than its neighbors, and has recently submitted an application for EU membership.
Unlikely
Nevertheless, during the war in Ukraine, they have taken a cautious line towards Russia, and have made it clear that they do not want to impose sanctions.
– It would be surprising if Moscow responded positively to the approach from South Ossetia when the Georgian authorities have at the same time taken such a line. Georgia is far more important to Moscow than South Ossetia, says Blakkisrud.
The war in Ukraine also affects Georgia domestically. Around 30,000 Russians have traveled to the country since the war in Ukraine began.
Among the Russians who have come to Georgia are oppositionists who would risk serious reprisals if they stayed in Russia.
When Dagbladet visited the country at the end of March, several Georgians expressed both skepticism and anger towards the newly arrived Russians.
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