The experts predict the winners and losers of the Oscars
Published 2024-03-10 19.43
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Tonight, a whole bunch of Oscar statuettes will be handed out to the Hollywood stars. It’s the gala of the madmen and this year you can see it on TV4.
Stefan Hedmark (SH) and Jan-Olov Andersson (JOA) are ready with the fortune teller.
Here are the winners at the gala in the biggest film categories.
Film
”American fiction”, ”Barbie”, ”Fritt fall”, ”The holdovers”, ”Killers of the flower moon”, ”Maestro”, ”Oppenheimer”, ”Past lives”, ”Poor things”, ”The zone of interest”.
SH: 2023 has been a good year. It’s really fun to see that all the nominees succeed in surpassing last year’s winners! I think “The holdovers” is the best in the category, but can absolutely live with the pre-specified favorite “Oppenheimer” taking home the top prize.
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JOA: Last year, unbelievably enough, the overrated “Everything everywhere all at once” won. This year, it will be hard for the Oscar jury to get it wrong. Three masterpieces are nominated: “Oppenheimer”, “Poor things” and “The holdovers”. All the other films, except “Maestro”, are really damn good. “Oppenheimer” wins.
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full screen “Oppenheimer”.
Regi
Justine Triet (”Fritt fall”), Martin Scorsese (”Killers of the flower moon”), Christopher Nolan (”Oppenheimer”), Yorgos Lanthimos (”Poor things”), Jonathan Glazer (”The zone of interest”).
SH: My favorite in this category is Jonathan Glazer, who managed to make something completely original and exciting out of a widely used cinematic theme, the Holocaust. But Christopher Nolan really deserves the statuette. What an incredible career he has behind him (and hopefully ahead of him).
JOA: All five are worthy winners, but it feels partly that “Oppenheimer” is well suited for a grand slam and partly that it is Christopher Nolan’s turn. Not only is he an uncompromising artist as a director, he also brings in tons of money for Hollywood.
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helskärmLily Gladstone i ”Killers of the flower moon”.
Female main character
Annette Bening (”Nyad”), Lily Gladstone (”Killers of the flower moon”), Sandra Hüller (”Fritt fall”), Carey Mulligan (”Maestro”), Emma Stone (”Poor things”).
SH: An exciting category. In my opinion, all four names except Lily Gladstone are hugely impressive in their roles. There is nothing wrong with Gladstone’s performance, but her character is not the most important in “Killers of the flower moon” (which in itself has sparked discussions here and there). It’s between her and Emma Stone. I think it has tipped over in Gladstone’s favor at this point.
JOA: Emma Stone proved to be the best, bravest and most ruthless when she threw herself into the daring film “Poor things”. She should win. But Lily Gladstone can compete if the jury wants to show how important diversity is, she would be the first Native American winner.
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full screen Paul Giamatti in “The holdovers”.
Male lead role
Bradley Cooper (”Maestro”), Colman Domingo (”Rustin”), Paul Giamatti (”The holdovers”), Cillian Murphy (”Oppenheimer”), Jeffrey Wright (”American fiction”).
SH: Oh, how I want to see Paul Giamatti take the stage and accept his well-deserved Oscar for “The Holdovers”. But everything points to it being Cillian Murphy, who of course is excellent in “Oppenheimer”. Too bad for Bradley Cooper, who will lose yet again.
JOA: It is likely that Cillian Murphy will ride the “Oppenheimer” wave and win. Don’t subscribe wrong. But I’d rather see Paul Giamatti as the winner. His teacher is a much more multifaceted role.
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full screenDa’Vine Joy Randolph in “The holdovers”.
Female supporting role
Emily Blunt (”Oppenheimer”), Danielle Brooks (”Purpurfärgen”), America Ferrera (”Barbie”), Jodie Foster (”Nyad”), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (”The holdovers”).
SH: The fact that America Ferrera is nominated here is mostly due to a talked about (and very overrated) speech that her character gives in “Barbie”, a film that otherwise has many good merits. The statuette goes to Da’Vine Joy Randolph, one of the most gifted winners of the night.
JOA: Here’s everything laid out for Da’Vine Joy Randolph. She is a relatively unknown underdog, her character carries both so much pain and black humor and punctuates every line, every tone, every gesture, in a masterful way. You love her in “The holdovers”.
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full screenRobert Downey, Jr. in “Oppenheimer”.
Male supporting role
Sterling K Brown (”American fiction”), Robert De Niro (”Killers of the flower moon”), Robert Downey, Jr (”Oppenheimer”), Ryan Gosling (”Barbie”), Mark Ruffalo (”Poor things”).
SH: I’m glad to see Robert Downey, Jr. nominated here; he makes the most memorable performance in “Oppenheimer” as a vengeful politician. He will win an Oscar. Another Marvel star, Mark Ruffalo, also really deserved his nomination as a shameless lawyer in “Poor things”.
JOA: Here, Robert Downey, Jr. is the big favorite and will probably win. Would be funnier if Ryan Gosling won. He makes a lot of his somewhat thankless supporting role as a silly plastic doll.
Originalmanus
”Fritt fall”, ”The holdovers, ”Maestro”, ”May december”, ”Past lives”.
SH: Great nominations here, I’ll accept any of them as winners. But it will be Justine Triet and Arthur Harari who win for “Free Fall”, a film that looks at the relationships within a family while presenting a mystery where every solution appears to be entirely possible. Skilled!
JOA: Here, anyone but “Maestro” can win. I probably mostly believe in “Free fall”, with its unique murder and legal case where even the lead actress Sandra Hüller didn’t say she knew if her character was guilty or not. But I’m holding on to “May December”, an unusually clever film based on a real event.
Script after model
”American fiction”, ”Barbie”, ”Oppenheimer”, ”Poor things”, ”The zone of interest”.
SH: Strange reasoning behind the placement of “Barbie” in this category, it’s really more of an original script than a copy. Very hard to pick a winner here. Many experts believe that “American fiction” takes it home and it is probably a brilliant interpretation of the book behind the film. “Oppenheimer” is a given candidate. Personally, I think that the obvious winner should be “The zone of interest”, which has made something so interesting out of a book that partly has a completely different orientation. So what will it be? I’m taking a chance on “American fiction” by Cord Jefferson.
JOA: In its own way, “Barbie” would be a worthy winner. Imagine writing a good screenplay based on – a doll! But “Oppenheimer” wins.
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fullscreen”Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse”.
Animated feature film
“The Boy and the Heron”, “Elementary”, “Nimona”, “Robot dreams”, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse”.
SH: It stands between Spider-Man and “The Boy and the Heron”. I think the former wins. Even if you’re not that fond of comic book movies, it’s hard not to be impressed by the creativity in the “Spider-verse” movies.
JOA: Americans seem unlikely to be fond of “Spider-Man”…, so it will probably win. Otherwise, master Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki is a worthy winner for what is likely to be his final film.
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full screen”20 days in Mariupol”. Photo: Mstyslav Chernov
Documentary
“Bobi Wine: The people’s president”, “The eternal memory”, “Four daughters”, “To kill a tiger”, “20 days in Mariupol”.
SH: I believe in “20 days in Mariupol” which, in an unpleasant and inevitably exciting way, shows how a city falls apart while the enemy is getting closer. A heartbreaking and acutely relevant film.
JOA: “Four daughters” has many advocates, but it is hard to believe that anything can beat the incredibly strong “20 days in Mariupol”. Not least because all sensible people sympathize with Ukraine’s fight against Putin.
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full screen “The zone of interest”.
International feature film
“The Captain” (Italy), “Perfect days” (Japan), “Brotherhood of the Snow” (Spain), “The teacher’s room” (Germany), “The zone of interest” (Great Britain).
SH: Then it was finally time for “The zone of interest” to win something. It can be added that it should of course also win the sound category, given how the sound can symbolize the whole of Auschwitz. It impresses, but “Oppenheimer” can be difficult to defeat in that category.
JOA: Germany won last year, their contribution this year is also a strong and subtle drama. But (fairly) Britain wins with a German-language anti-Nazi film that depicts the horrors of the Holocaust in a very original way.
Photo
”Greven”, ”Killers of the flower moon”, ”Maestro”, ”Oppenheimer”, ”Poor things”.
SH: Clearly, Hoyte and his powerful close-ups of the actors in “Oppenheimer” should have an Oscar, even though Edward Lachman and Matthew Libatique made “The Count” and “Maestro” incredibly beautiful.
JOA: The black and white photo in Pablo Larraín’s “The Count” is incomparably delicious. But “Oppenheimer” wins here too. Half-Swedish win, you could say, Hoyte van Hoytema started his career in Sweden.
Cutting
”Fritt fall”, ”The holdovers”, ”Killers of the flower moon”, ”Oppenheimer”, ”Poor things”.
SH: Jennifer Lame is no newcomer, but this is her first Oscar nomination. It was she who cut the tricky “Tenet”, which was incomprehensible to many, brilliant to a crowd of devoted Nolan fans. She will win for “Oppenheimer”.
JOA: “Oppenheimer” wins. Very nicely put together, it’s not an easy story to tell in an understandable way.
Original music
”American fiction”, ”Indiana Jones and the dial of destiny”, ”Killers of the flower moon”, ”Oppenheimer”, ”Poor things”.
SH: One of the evening’s most given favorites to win an Oscar is Swedish. John Williams, 92, must be excused (after all, he already has five Oscars).
JOA: Ludwig Göransson has already won almost all the prizes for “Oppenheimer”. So now he gets his second Oscar. Östgöte, thank God, he makes all of us from Linköping a little proud again.
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full screen “Barbie”.
Singing
“The fire inside” (”Flamin’ hot”), ”I’m just Ken” (”Barbie”), ”It never went away” (”American symphony”), ”Wahzhazhe (A song for my people)” (”Killers of the flower moon”), ”What was I made for?” (”Barbie”).
SH: I rarely get what I want in this category, but this year I think Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas O’Connell have written the best song, “What was I made for?”, and they should win. It will be their second Oscar, after the Bond song “No time to die” this year. Unfortunately, veteran Diane Warren’s song “The fire inside” is unusually boring.
JOA: One of the “Barbie” songs will win, I’m hoping for “I’m just Ken”, but I believe in the Billie Eilish song.
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