Last weekend before the beginning of April and the Oscar race takes a breather after the victory of ‘Nomadland’ in the Producers Guild (PGA) during the early hours of last Wednesday, a triumph that clarifies the panorama on the queen category and that indirectly shifts the focus of interest to the interpretive categories. The next key event on the awards calendar will be the SAG gala, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, next Sunday, April 4. It is here where precisely the interpretive quintets will be either more closed or more open depends on the winners and winners, something that experts and scholars in the field eagerly await to predict with a more accurate analysis categories such as Best Supporting Actress, where Maria Bakalova is an Oscar favorite.
As we said, a name stands out above all this year in the category: Maria Bakalova. The Bulgarian actress has wowed everyone as Tutar, the daughter of the eccentric Borat in the sequel to the 2006 film starring Sacha Baron Cohen. Even in a loss, as happened in the past Golden Globes, Bakalova was praised by a namesake of hers as Rosamund Pike, ultimately the winner of the award for Best Actress in Comedy or Musical. In her acceptance speech, Pike had these lovely and inspiring words for the Bulgarian: “In my movie I had to swim from a sinking car. Still, I’d rather do that than be in a room with Rudy Giuliani. Maria, I salute your brilliant sense of bravery”. If a guildmate campaigns for you when she has beaten you, you have liked her a lot.
In what is her Hollywood debut (and in her third year as a professional, as she graduated in 2019), Maria Bakalova has been a revelation that has dazzled critics first (she has won 15 awards from critical associations) and the industry later. (She is in all the forerunners as a nominee, although the Globes nominated her as a main and not a secondary). In his favor he has the unanimity generated by his work in the film, the presence of it as a PGA nominee and in the category of Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars (something that does not make him a unique nomination) and the momentum as a young phenomenon . Against her, that she is a debutante, that can be seen as an outsider to more class voters and the enormous stigma that the comic genre awakens in The Academy (the last to lift an Oscar for a comic role was Kevin Kline for ‘A Fish Named Wanda’, and that was 32 long years ago).
Almost the antipode of what Bakalova’s candidacy means is that of Youn Yuh-jung, the charismatic grandmother of ‘Minari’. The veteran South Korean actress is an eminence in her country both on the small screen and in the cinema, and for her performance in that film she has garnered a whopping 26 awards during the critical circuit. The Golden Globes forgot about her but the rest of the industry awards have nominated her, leading her to become the first South Korean actress in history to be nominated for the SAG for Best Supporting Actress. Youn is preceded by the ‘Parasites’ effect, a double-edged sword when it comes to voting for her, but she is in a film that has endured the race very well and has been nominated for six awards, including Best Film, something that it could cause an Oscar carry-over effect. Only the force of the Bakalova earthquake could deprive him of a historic victory.
On a notch below the two are in a somewhat unpredictable order Glenn Close, Olivia Colman and Amanda Seyfried. The first is one of those painful ‘losers’ in the history of the Oscars, as it has been nominated up to eight times and has never won the golden statuette, being its last defeat two years ago (against Olivia Colman curiously) one of the most blatant. Glenn Close is nominated for her role as Grandma Mamaw in ‘Hillbilly, a rural elegy‘, a film directed by Ron Howard that was not very well received by critics, and is a nomination that responds more to a show of deference for the talent and legacy of the iconic actress that to a specific recognition for this work, which has even been nominated for the Razzie (known as the Anti-Oscars). Close did not enter the BAFTAs and the feeling of debt to her can do him more harm than good, but he is still Glenn Close, who is not a minute.
Fate has wanted to reunite Olivia Colman and Glenn Close in the same category after that sonorous surprise. Olivia Colman She is in one of the most emotional films of the season, the British ‘The Father’, in which she plays the daughter of an exalted Anthony Hopkins. The English actress, who has not stopped making noise since she won her first Oscar for ‘The Favorite’, is a clear example of a supporting role that she looks like without stealing the film. His presence in one of the series of the moment like ‘The Crown’ gives him a tough nut to crack in the category, but his recent victory, Sony’s poor campaign with the film and a rare absence at the BAFTAs detracts from him more. options you have. Her presence should never be understood as that of a mere spectator on Oscars night, but it does your victory should be viewed as a long shot rather than a solid option.
The one that gets the weakest is the one that was the most favorite at first. Amanda Seyfried was the most acclaimed element of ‘Mank’, David Fincher’s film that chronicles a specific part of the life and work of Hernan J. Mankiewicz, screenwriter of ‘Citizen Kane’. The film suffered a progressive decrease in buzz before, during and after its premiere on Netflix, to the point of garnering 10 nominations and being one of the most disappointing films of the season. This downturn almost left Seyfried without a nomination, who saw Helena Zengel, Jodie Foster or Dominique Fishback deal hard blows in precursors such as the SAG, the Golden Globes or the BAFTAs. Finally, Amanda entered the quintet of Oscar nominees and did so for the first time in her career, something that sounds like an award rather than a chance to win. She is the best of ‘Mank’, but that alone is not enough. Perhaps you have the feeling with her that she will be nominated again and will be able to win soon.
The Actors Guild Awards next Sunday, April 4, will be very revealing in order to better structure the race in these four acting categories, especially in the two with a female presence. It could be Maria Bakalova’s final table punch, Youn Yuh-jung’s final sprint, Glenn Close’s resurrection, Olivia Colman’s mind-blowing confirmation as a threat (and poor Close’s black beast) or the hecatomb of the category in the form of a bell from Amanda Seyfried. It will not be in any case a result that closes the quintet but it would mean a fence among the favorites of the race. Six days after meeting the SAG winners, the BAFTAs will arrive, who will finish putting the cards on the table to predict who will succeed Laura Dern as the winner of the statuette for Best Supporting Actress, where everything points to Maria Bakalova, favorite at the Oscars. Making a simile of the casino, do game!
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