An investigation developed by the firm
orbitsa firm specialized in business advice on climate change, has estimated that The Brazilian livestock sector could see beef production fall by 25% by 2050 and the available pasture area would be reduced by 37% if forest conservation strategies do not improve and competition for land.
The report states that investments in low-cost sustainable production efficiencies could drive an 18% increase in livestock producer yields, a 19% increase in producer prices and a 9% increase in livestock exports. Brazilian beef. Orbitas found that livestock producers who transition to more sustainable livestock production “could improve their financial resilience and performance, with an expected 88% increase in agricultural capital investment.”
Brazil represents 20% of global beef exports and ranks second in the world in stock, with 232 million head of cattle, Orbitas explained. This position means that the sector contributes almost 10% of Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 3.3 million people nationally, including 2.5 million livestock farmers.
In its analysis, Orbitas revealed the impact that a scenario aligned with keeping global warming below 2º C could have on the Brazilian livestock sector.
Los risks for the Brazilian livestock sector In this scenario they are the following:
- Emission-intensive livestock producers would experience increasing costs as GHG prices rise;
- Land conservation policies and increased competition for land from other sectors would result in 37% less available grassland;
- There is an 80% chance of loss of profitability for most producers with economic shocks to prices and transportation costs if they do not sustainably increase production efficiency by 2050. Producers in northeastern Brazil are the most vulnerable, as current profits can be up to 12 times higher. less than those in the south.
- Producers who do not increase production efficiency or diversify income could face financial losses of more than $155 per hectare by 2050;
- Responses to climate change could lead to a 25% drop in domestic beef production and a significant decline in domestic beef consumption;
- Rising prices and changes in consumer preferences could reduce Brazilian demand for meat by 38% and global demand by 5%.
Orbitas highlighted that there are important Opportunities for stakeholders operating in Brazil’s livestock sector under a forecast aligned with 2º C:
- Livestock producers would gain opportunities to diversify income streams through agroforestry and non-timber forest products, and through biodiversity and carbon markets;
- Producers could experience an 18% increase in pasture yields associated with low-cost technological change by 2050;
- Regenerative soil restoration practices could increase yield per hectare of severely degraded pastures by up to 310%, increasing profitability by more than $375 per hectare for currently lower-productivity producers;
- Deforestation-free and low-emission meat products could take advantage of greater producer pricing opportunities 19% more than in 2020;
- Investing in low-cost techniques could increase resilience to the financial risks of the climate transition. These include pasture management practices, increased efficiency and use of fertilizers, and sustainable agricultural methods such as integrated crop, livestock, and forestry and pasture systems;
- Brazil has the opportunity to invest in international trade, and is projected to increase its share of global beef exports by 9% by 2050;
- Net emissions from land use in 2050 could decrease by 1,356 million tons of carbon dioxide compared to 2020 levels.
Niamh McCarthy, director of Orbitas, said: “The future of the Brazilian livestock sector will be very different from how it appears and operates today. “The sector has real climate risks that it must confront if it wants to remain a significant contributor to Brazil’s GDP and also a key player in global ruminant markets,” she added.
2024-04-08 04:03:22
#Beef #production #Brazil #reduced #forest #conservation #improved
