Ilya Yashin, an opposition Russian politician and now a political prisoner, spoke about the undercover games and moods of the Russian elites and gave a forecast about what the future holds for the Kremlin dictator.
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Ilya Yashin, who has been imprisoned in Russia since July 12 for anti-war speeches, continues his opposition activities despite his arrest. He recently shared information about the mood of Russian officials close to the dictator who want and potentially can overthrow Vladimir Putin.
Is it possible to eliminate Putin from the outside
According to Yashin, the removal of Putin from the outside is unrealistic: “Military aggression against a sovereign state, and even one with nuclear weapons, is too dangerous a gamble. I think even the hottest heads among Western leaders understand this.”
Is it possible to overthrow Putin through domestic protests?
The political prisoner doubts very much that it is possible to overthrow Putin through internal protests. As a matter of fact, everyone who observes the life of Russian society is ready to confirm this thesis of Ilya Yashin. Most Russians support Putin, are nostalgic for the USSR, do not try to fight imperial ambitions, and simply love a relatively well-fed – in the Russian sense – life, which was successfully exchanged for democracy and civil liberties long ago and successfully. At the same time, the repressive machine in Russia works better than any other institutions, which makes any kind of protest completely impossible.
The overthrow of Putin by the forces of his inner circle
But the prospect of a palace coup seems quite real to Yashin. The removal of the head of state from power by conspirators from his entourage is a scenario for which all the prerequisites are now emerging.
But how real it is and who can carry out such a coup are the questions that concern us most of all.
Three groups of influence surrounded by Putin
Yashin notes the completion of the formation of at least three influence groups in Putin’s inner circle, each of which has serious influence, great financial opportunities, its own understanding of the situation and its own leaders:
- Mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin;
- defense minister Sergei Shoigu;
- prime minister Mikhail Mishustin.
Yashin gave a description of each of the potential conspirators.
Can Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin overthrow Putin
Фото: Associated Press
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Sobyanin, according to the politician, tried very hard to preserve his reputation and distance himself from the war, although he was forced to make statements in support of the special operation, but he hardly posed with the letter “Z” and was one of the last to fall under European sanctions.
“Sobyanin’s presidential ambitions have long been no secret to anyone – including, by the way, Putin, whose relations with the mayor of Moscow have cooled noticeably. his deputies, waiting for the command to initiate criminal cases… Sobyanin understands, of course, that his political resource is gradually being exhausted, but, obviously, he is waiting for the moment to make his move, because he will not have a second chance … Support is on Sobyanin’s side so-called systemic liberals and huge financial opportunities. It’s no joke: before the war, Moscow’s budget was comparable to the expenses of the Ministry of Defense. But the main problem of the capital’s mayor is the almost complete absence of a power resource.”
Will the career ambitions of the “cardboard marshal” Sergei Shoigu help outplay Putin
—-Фото: Associated Press
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is the second contender for supreme power. Large financial and bureaucratic groups are focused on it. Yashin assesses Shoigu as one of the most experienced politicians in Russia: he led the Moscow region, then the Ministry of Emergency Situations and organized military campaigns at the head of the army.
“Shoigu is very ambitious and ambitious, for example, in his native Tuva, for example, a cult of his personality has been created – without exaggeration. At the same time, it is obvious that the Minister of Defense has hit a career ceiling and there is simply nowhere for him to grow. Putin looks with apprehension at Shoigu, whose ratings are clearly higher He certainly won’t appoint him prime minister, is unlikely to see him as a successor, and is even trying to reduce Shoigu’s influence by increasing the political role of the head of the General Staff, Gerasimov, who has become a kind of counterbalance to the defense minister.
Shoigu has a huge defense budget, a group of generals personally oriented towards him, and military units subordinate to them. In addition, in recent years, Shoigu has carefully and consistently placed his people in government and governor positions. At the same time, the Ministry of Defense is often criticized by the special services, pointing to corruption. There is also a very conflicting competition with Putin’s private army, which is formed from mercenaries under the auspices of the so-called “Kremlin chef” Yevgeny Prigozhin. Shoigu is also actively criticized in the Putin-patriotic environment, drawing attention to gross mistakes in planning the Ukrainian special operation and the low level of personal competence of the Minister of Defense. In this environment, Shoigu is called a plywood marshal, which probably annoys the minister and provokes drastic steps,” Yashin said.
The official number two Mikhail Mishustin and his “will to win” over Putin
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The third group of influence is the entourage of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
Here is how an opposition politician assesses his chances of overthrowing Putin: “His career has developed rather strangely. A native of the tax structures, Mishustin was drafted into the government in order to optimize its work and increase efficiency. swollen military budget, fight off unprecedented sanctions, plug holes that form in the economy, and put out spontaneously arising crises-fires… Well, besides this, come up with motivation and convince colleagues to continue the work, primarily from the economic bloc of the government, whom there is no information about the war was not warned in advance and put before the fact.
Dissatisfied with what is happening, officials and businessmen cluster around Mishustin for completely natural reasons. According to the Constitution, he formally occupies the second place in the state hierarchy of Russia. If Putin suddenly disappears, then Mishustin will automatically become the acting president and, importantly, the supreme commander in chief. On the one hand, this is an important trump card in hardware games, but on the other hand, it is Mishustin’s main vulnerability, which the special services are watching with their characteristic paranoia. He perfectly understands this, of course, and behaves neatly and shows almost no ambition. Nevertheless, it is clear how representatives of the bureaucracy and business unite around the prime minister, who do not have an ideological face and, in general, are ready to work with any government. The main thing is that this government guarantees safety and a high level of consumption. Everything that Putin is now taking away from his elites. In fact, this group of influence wants the restoration of the destroyed social contract.
Putin is watching everyone
Yashin claims: “…Putin sees everything perfectly and regularly receives memorandums about the unrest among the elites and oligarchs, but he firmly believes in the loyalty of his special services, relies on them and is convinced that if anything happens he will have time to play ahead of the curve…. After all, potential conspirators should at least discuss their plans, and the president believes that in conditions of total surveillance of all the FSB will find out everything in advance and immediately inform him.
But do not forget that there are enough young officers in the FSB and the FSO who actually want to live, and live well. Perhaps they like Putin’s harsh rhetoric, they sincerely dislike America, they despise Europe. But most of them have families and children, good apartments and cars, privileges and a comfortable life. It’s one thing to spit in the direction of NATO. And quite another is the prospect of a real deadly war, which could turn into the end of humanity.
The opposition politician also stressed that, from his point of view, Sergei Shoigu has the least chance of success.
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