Opposition Party Wins Key Districts in Blow to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
In a surprising turn of events, the Labour Party has emerged victorious in two key districts in England, dealing a significant blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party. The seats of Kingswood in southwest England and Wellingborough in the country’s center, which were previously held by the Conservatives, have now been won by Labour Party candidates Damien Egan and Gen Kitchen, respectively.
The results of these special elections have sent shockwaves through the Conservative Party, further exacerbating concerns that they may be heading towards defeat in the upcoming national election, which is less than a year away. Recent opinion polls consistently show the Tories trailing behind the left-of-center Labour Party by a margin of 10 to 20 points.
The loss of these two seats adds to the Conservatives’ growing list of defeats in by-elections since the last general election. In fact, they have now lost a total of 10 by-elections, the highest number for any administration since the 1960s. This includes six defeats and one win since Sunak assumed office in October 2022, following Liz Truss’s short-lived tenure.
The Conservative Party has been in power nationally since 2010, a period marked by austerity measures, the Brexit referendum, the COVID-19 pandemic, and economic challenges. Despite promises made by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson to bring prosperity to neglected areas and unite the country, these pledges have largely gone unfulfilled. Economic growth has stagnated, and the country slipped into recession at the end of 2023.
The loss of support for the Conservatives is evident across various demographics. Affluent southern voters who were disillusioned by Brexit have turned away from the party, while working-class northern voters who switched from Labour in the 2019 election are now expressing their discontent. The Conservatives’ inability to deliver on their promises has left many feeling hopeless and stagnant.
Damien Egan, the newly elected MP for Kingswood, captured the sentiment of many voters in his victory speech. He highlighted the impact of 14 years of Conservative rule, stating, “It doesn’t have to be this way — you know it, I know it, we all know it.” This sentiment resonates with a significant portion of the electorate who are yearning for change.
While the Conservative Party attributed the low turnout in these elections to a lack of enthusiasm for Labour, polling expert John Curtice believes that the results indicate the party is in “very, very considerable electoral trouble.” The Conservatives will need to overcome historical records to make a comeback.
The losses suffered by the Conservatives may also embolden Sunak’s rivals within the party, who are already positioning themselves for a leadership contest that could follow an election defeat. Some members advocate for Sunak’s immediate removal, suggesting a replacement who aligns with a low-tax, low-immigration agenda to win back voters from the Reform U.K. party. However, others caution against replacing an unelected leader, fearing potential backlash.
While Sunak may find some solace in Labour’s own struggles, such as their recent watering down of a key green investment pledge and allegations of antisemitism within the party, it remains uncertain whether these controversies have significantly impacted Labour’s standing in opinion polls.
The results of these special elections serve as a wake-up call for the Conservative Party. With less than a year until the national election, they must address the concerns and disillusionment of the electorate if they hope to regain their popularity and secure victory. The battle for leadership within the party intensifies, and the future of British politics hangs in the balance.
