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OPEC will again reduce its expectations for growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025.

Russian output fell further in September, she said

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for growth in global oil demand this year to 1.93 million barrels per day, compared to 2.03 million barrels per day previously expected, for the third consecutive year. once in a row.

OPEC said in its monthly report that it also lowered its expectations for growth in global oil demand next year, to 1.64 million barrels per day, compared to 1.74 million barrels per day than previously expected.

The report indicated that OPEC’s average production of crude oil reached 26.04 barrels per day in September 2024, a decrease of 604 thousand barrels per day compared to August, led by Libya and Iraq.

China accounted for the largest part of the reduction in expectations for 2024, as OPEC attributed the reduction in 2024 expectations to “the actual data received along with slightly lower expectations for performance oil demand in some regions… and the decline in Chinese demand growth to 580 thousand barrels per day. ” From 650 thousand barrels per day.

This is the third time in a row that the group has revised its expectations down. Expectations for demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to different expectations of demand from China, and the pace of the global shift to less polluting fuel sources. OPEC’s prospects remain the most optimistic, even after the change. China is behind most of the reduction in expectations for 2024, as OPEC lowered its expectations for Chinese demand growth to 580,000 barrels per day from 650,000 barrels per day. OPEC said that while the Chinese government’s stimulus measures will support demand in the fourth quarter, oil use is facing economic challenges and moves towards cleaner fuels. Speaking on August, OPEC said: “Diesel consumption continues to decline due to the decline in economic activity, particularly the slowdown in building and housing construction, and the use of liquefied natural gas instead of diesel fuel petrol in trucks.”

Russian oil production

OPEC said Russia will cut its crude oil output in September by 28,000 barrels per day to around nine million barrels per day, citing data released by secondary sources such as consulting firms. . This production increased slightly over the quota agreed in the OPEC Plus alliance. Under the “OPEC Plus” agreement and voluntary cuts, Russia’s monthly quota is 8.98 million barrels per day. August production data was revised down to 9.029 million barrels per day, compared to 9.059 million barrels per day in data released in September.

The OPEC Plus alliance, which includes OPEC and allies including Russia, has implemented a series of major production cuts from the end of 2022 to support the volatile oil market, as agreed on the production quotas of member countries. OPEC said in September that there were countries that had exceeded agreed production quotas, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq. Russia promised to compensate for the increase in production from April through production cuts in October and November this year, and in the period between March and September next year.

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2024-10-14 12:39:00
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