OPEC Secretary Common: Peak demand for oil will not be on the horizon

Haitham Al-Ghais stated: The Secretary Common of the Group of Petroleum Exporting International locations, OPEC, stated that from the Nineties to the primary decade of the twenty-first century, the world had seen a lot of articles speaking in regards to the principle of oil provide. top, which was elevated by the voices of writers similar to Colin Campbell and Matthew Simons.

Al-Ghais stated in an article seen by Sky Information Arabia on Thursday that this principle has not been realized, after a long time have handed, as a result of the developed financial system and steady improvement in know-how have helped to cut back prices and horizon new opened for oil growth. useful resource base.

He defined that over the previous ten years, the world has seen a shift in dialog, to speak about “peak demand for oil,” as some forecasters more and more ‘ assault theoretical conditions that aren’t depending on any knowledge evaluation, together with that oil shouldn’t be. as a part of the power future.

“That is mirrored in some zero-emissions situations, together with the anticipated demand for… Oil It’s going to attain its peak by 2030, or extra, that the demand for oil will lower by greater than 25 p.c by 2030, and with calls to cease funding in new oil tasks,” in accordance with the OPEC Secretary-Common.

Al-Ghais stated the story of the height in oil demand was repeated on Wednesday, when it was revealed Worldwide Power Company The 2024 Oil Report reiterated that oil demand will peak by 2030.

“This can be a harmful thought, particularly for customers, and it’ll solely result in unprecedented power fluctuations,” Al-Ghais stated.

“We’ve additionally heard related predictions, which have been confirmed incorrect,” he stated.

He stated: “The Worldwide Power Company predicted that demand for gasoline would peak in 2019, however gasoline consumption reached file ranges in 2023, and is already on the rise this 12 months.”

“The demand for coal was additionally anticipated to peak in 2014, however at the moment coal consumption remains to be reaching file ranges,” stated Al Ghais.

The OPEC Secretary-Common defined that many future prospects for zero emissions are primarily based solely on changing hydrocarbons, which make up greater than 80 p.c of the world’s power combine at the moment. .

He identified that these predictions have a tendency to exchange present power sources, relatively than including new power sources to this power combine, “which is in opposition to the historical past of the power provide of the world,” as he stated.

“These expectations are extra rhetorical than actuality,” he stated.

Renewable power

The Secretary-Common of the group stated OPECWind and solar energy present about 4 p.c of the world’s power, with an total world penetration fee of electrical autos between 2 p.c and three p.c, although the world has greater than $ 9.5 trillion invested within the transition to renewable power over the previous twenty years. .

He defined that OPEC welcomes all of the progress made in renewable power sources and electrical autos, “which aren’t even near changing the 80 p.c of the power combine which comes from oil. “

Al-Ghais stated that the present electrical energy networks, the power to make batteries, and entry to very important minerals are main challenges for the renewable power sector.

“We should additionally keep in mind that some oil-related merchandise are wanted for the event of renewable power sources and electrical autos,” he stated, stressing that their future growth can even result in extra demand for oil.

The OPEC Secretary-Common stated: “Naturally, all of us wish to scale back emissions, however on the similar time, all of us want ample, dependable and inexpensive power provides.”

“The 2 can’t be separated,” he stated.

Al Ghais stated, on this regard, there are three predominant details which are value remembering:

First, future development in power and oil demand will happen primarily throughout the non-OECD creating world, pushed by rising populations, a center class is rising, and financial development.

Second, because the demand for oil continues to develop, as OPEC expects demand for… Oil With 4 million barrels per day over time 2024 and 2025.

Third, many components of the world are seeing a shift away from oil by customers, attributable to what individuals see as expectations primarily based on formidable and unsustainable net-zero emissions coverage agendas. sensible, and this in flip encourages coverage makers to reassess their approaches. with future power pathways.

Al-Ghais stated in his article that everybody is free to have an opinion, “however it’s important that that is primarily based on the truth that we see earlier than us at the moment.”

He highlighted the clear must prioritize power safety, reap the benefits of all obtainable power, present power affordability, improve sustainability, scale back emissions and never restrict present power choices as attributable to growing demand.