If Russia were not part of the agreement, it could pave the way for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC countries to significantly increase oil production. This is demanded by the US and European countries, because the invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices above 100 USD per barrel.
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Russia is one of the three largest oil producers in the world. Last year, it was agreed with OPEC and nine other countries to increase production every month. But now its production is expected to fall by about eight percent this year. It is not yet clear whether Russia would agree to be exempted from the mining agreement.
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So far, there has been no formal pressure on OPEC to extract more oil to replace a possible Russian supply outage. But some Gulf members have begun planning to increase production sometime in the coming months, delegates said.
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Analysts have long warned that only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the capacity to increase supplies. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo recently warned that it was not in the power of other producers to replace exports from Russia, which amount to seven million barrels a day.
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